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Archive for December, 2014

PLEASE NOTE: All ratings for FLEMINGTON are for GOOD track. Rail is 11m. Was 8m here last week and yep, the inside was off as expected! Again doubt we will have any mad leader pattern here. Run-ons to get their chance.
In Sydney it is ROSEHILL and ratings are for GOOD track there also. Rail is 2m so there is protected ground out to 8m from last meeting on wet ground where track copped some damage, still, this track has been playing very well of late.
BET OF THE DAY (Melb)
FLEMINGTON – Race 4 No.5 – ARE THERE ANY – Stepped out to this distance range for the first time MV latest and beat a handy field, well. In below limit here VS males and gets good run. Keen she runs well and massive price early, they went up $9.5 (I tried to get email out urgently!)… Still value though.
BET OF THE DAY (Syd)
ROSEHILL – Race 8 No.11 – VASHKA – Picks himself. Just dominant again last time with 59kg after toweling up subsequent winner Commanding Wit prior. No issue 1500m for mine. Draw is awkward but not going against! Backable too $2.8
BEST VALUE BET OF THE DAY
FLEMINGTON – Race 3 No.10 – CRINKLECUT – Stopped in his tracks at Ballarat then picked-up and went over line very nicely. Back/Wide MV latest and had no hope, he was backed, that was a good race. The value runner here, around $10 being offered…
BEST EACH-WAY BET OF THE DAY
ROSEHILL – Race 5 No.1 – OFF THE RAILS – Arrived thanks to miracle bob last time but had to like the chase! He looked there like he already wants a trip, now gets to 1900m and drier ground no issue. Has 59.5kg but happy to stick.
BEST ROUGHIE OF THE DAY:
ROSEHILL – Race 6 No.1 – HAUSSMANN – Ran 7th in Starlight but had sound late splits and fancy wanted further than 1100m anyway, gets that here, to 1300m in !MW class. Claims down. Boasts photo 2nd to Target In Sight at 1300m at level weights. $26 is crazy overs!!
Lay Of the Day:
ROSEHILL – Race 2 No.8 – KAEPERNICK – Effortless last start maiden winner himself off good fresh run when cost himself the win, that form is good. Like the horse but have to take on $2.5 !!??
TOP-RATED RUNNERS:
FLEMINGTON
Race 1 – 2YO – 1000m
  1. 6 – BELLA ORFANA – 1st-start. Bit slow into stride in jump out then went through, took over and raced away under a hold, she looked fantastic. Come up good odds.
  2. 2 – BOSNIA – 1st-start. Sat off speed wide in Sydney trial and quickly put them away untouched, excellent trial win, Godolphin 2yo’s are flying!
  3. 4 – LUCKY FISH – 1st-start. Another impressive jump out winner, this is a half to Hampton Court. Looks to have the family ability.
  4. 7 – CLAUDIA JEAN – 1st-start. Showed pace and won latest jump out. Obviously has talent too.
  5. 8 – KIMBLEWICK – 1st-start. Sat off speed and joined in nicely, yep, another to jump out well.
Race 2 – 3&4YO F&M BM78 – 1000m
  1. 9 – MS MAZETTI – Good fresh behind males when bumped heavily at start and ran on. Close-up last time in busy finish despite pulling up with slow recovery, she was backed. Beat home Rich Enuff on debut remember.
  2. 8 – TAIL RISK – Resumes. New stable. Jump out was good. Drawn out to swoop. She strung a few wins in first prep then measured up ok in Saturday grade in Sydney. Wary.
  3. 2 – THE SECRET – Resumes. Won 4 of 6 last prep and bolted in maiden at start of that campaign. All four wins on Synthetic. Stable going quite well.
  4. 1 – SWING WITH ME – Sat wide fresh Swan Hill and was way too good. She is building a terrific record and draws out, claims down.
  5. 4- MOPAREE – Worked early MV latest and had to fade. Held-up hopelessly prior. Gate 1 the query but in well weights and up to these. Overs? Needs touch of luck now is all…
Race 3 – BM78 – 1420m
  1. 10 – CRINKLECUT – Stopped in his tracks at Ballarat then picked-up and went over line very nicely. Back/Wide MV latest and had no hope, he was backed, that was a good race. The value runner here?
  2. 3 – ROUNDABOUT – Arguably should have beaten Berisha fresh (then ran well in G2 Sandown Guineas) before easy maiden win thrashing Propelled (then won MV in class record time), walked in again latest. Smart and still learning/ on the up.
  3. 2 – BASCULE – Resumes. Sat off fast speed in trial and did close nicely. Only defeat in first prep was to Panzer Division who then beat Shooting To Win, the Guineas winner.
  4. 1 – HARRIER JET – Top win fresh and if here, not Syd, can win.
  5. 4 – INKULU – Nice ride/win fresh. Go back three runs and he beat Bondeiger who nearly won a VRC Derby!
Race 4 – BM90 – 2000m
  1. 5 – ARE THERE ANY – Stepped out to this distance range for the first time MV latest and beat a handy field, well. In below limit here VS males and eta good run. Keen she runs well and massive price early at $9.5
  2. 3 – DYLANSON – Like this guy. Jumped quickly to mile 2nd-up and beat a good field in this class, BM90, his 2000m form is excellent and the S.A. form just keeps measuring up over here.
  3. 4 – TAIYOO – Wide/Forgive then held-up badly, forgive!! Had right run latest on his fave track and chased down leader at 1800m. Doubt 2000m any issue on what I saw there. Meets Are There Any same weight terms from clash Lakeside three-back… Price differential is baffling!
  4. 8 – PRACTICED – Gap between runs and back in trip last week, he ran on well, now gets back to 2000m on quick back-up. He might be ready!! Goes in.
  5. 2 – CLANG AND BANG – Forgive last run on-speed in run-ons race. Was going well prior. Chance.
Race 5 – BM70 – 2000m
  1. 11 – TRANSFER ALLOWANCE – Has come back super this prep. Top fresh win then stayed 1400m 2nd-up, slow out and rattled home like a coming winner. Up in trip 3rd-up and won well overcoming trouble. Yes 2000m. Can win again.
  2. 12 – ALAKRIS – Promising and won 2 of 3 this prep himself, he has all the upside! He made ground on Golden Mane two-back (won here last week) then was an exceptional winner Yarra last time to the 1950m. Danger!
  3. 9 – IT’SALL ABOUTHARRY – Sat back and won running away Hamilton last time, found The Sicilian too strong prior but has weight swing today and do like this guy better onto drier ground.
  4. 5 – THE SICILIAN – Two from two for D.Weir and both wins have been impressive, how does he do it?? One query, both those wins were on wet ground, is he length better wet?
  5. 1 – GINGERBOY – Claim important here to 59kg, rider going well, dominant winner last time MV to the 2040m. Like his General Groove form…
  6. 7 – KERTHOS – Bit against again latest…. D-day is here!
Race 6 – BM90 – 1420m
  1. 2 – SHE’S CLEAN – Ridden too close Hillside in G3 two-back then colder ride latest, went wide no trail and still ran home well, in that race the first four all raced handy and/or on inside lanes. Gives weight to males a query but happy to back her against these, at the nice early price!
  2. 5 – AUDINO – Flying. Three wins in 15-days and won despite racing against his pattern last week (sat on slow speed) beating one of the best backed runners all day! No knock.
  3. 7 – THE NEW BOY – Leads or sits on Audino here. Gallant last time when only 2nd-up and might be ready… problem, his last win was many moons ago…
  4. 6 – HERO MASTER – Resumes. Took some good scalps last prep and came of age. Was beaten at start of that prep but he is a better horse now…. and this race has holes in it.
  5. 8 – SPECTER – Not one of mine but speed on, run-on pattern gives him a hope in odd little race.
Race 7 – BM78 – 1200m
  1. 3 – THE BOWLER – Was backed fresh but had no luck! Better suited here, at 1200m, drawn out. 2nd-up last prep he was only 3L off Sweet Idea in MM race.
  2. 5 – PRIX D’OR – Resumes. Gelded into last prep and won 3 of 4, in the third win he smacked Weinholt (who has Cluster form, that’s G1 form) and Magnus Effect. He can win if right.
  3. 7 – BOOMWAA – Ran well fresh given 58kg leading against the pattern, yes it was a blanket finish. Gets to 1200m now but 2 of his 3 runs at this trip have been good.
  4. 13 – RELEASE THE SPEED – Two from two and beat Rough Justice latest who boasts some handy form lines. Draws out. Who knows how much more there is… Tipping it is at least some (upside that is).
  5. 12 – REIGNING METEOR – Sound home latest in run-ons race and in light here…. Ran very well this track prior in deeper race than this one.
  6. 1 – CHURCHILL DANCER – Always a threat in these but inside gate, 60kg…?? Still, chance.
Race 8 – BM84 – 2540m
  1. 3 – DE LITTLE ENGINE – Has looked a star winning his last two when stepped out to staying trips, love the way he motored to the line Hillside latest. Big track here suits. Can win again!
  2. 5 – AUBERGE – Beat nothing in Sydney last time but the win was arrogant and note, he ran quite well to Vilanova in Qld before running OK in a Qld Derby to Sonntag so…. Danger!!
  3. 1 – SCHOCKEMOHLE – Still underrated. Beat Extra Zero (since good) and Alcohol (huge prior) latest ridden back. Has that Pheidon form on the CV too. First go 2500m range is an unknown but certainly goes in for mine.
  4. 6 – GREAT LANE – Solid last time but had no answer for De Little Engine, does have 3kg swing here, that is significant.
  5. 7 – BEAUTY PERCEPTION – Keen/Sound latest to Averau who since tested Cadillac Mountain in $120k race Werribee. Ran Ok here two-back on-speed in swooper’s race.
Race 9 – BM90 – 1000m
  1. 7 – AGENT – Hit wet track latest and forgiving that one. Chased Dothraki prior and like that form around Our Boy Malachi. Back to 1000m but nice middle gate and can run well here in tough finish…. at double figures.
  2. 6 – THE QUARTERBACK – Fresh here. Can fly home fresh and ran slashing race here one day when drew in, now draws out! Good placings to Bull Point and Al Aneed his last couple of fresh runs.
  3. 3 – THE THIEF – Held-up badly fresh behind Kaiser Sun. Both his 2nd-up runs have been good. Walked in here in June then chased the flying Vain Queen in sizzling time.
  4. 1 – KAISER SUN – Led and was out of all the trouble MV but never decry winning form, noted his big betting drift there so fancy more fitness to come. Up in weights but in OK relatively. Proven straight.
  5. 4 – THERMAL CURRENT – A hope but is he a straight horse??
  6. 2 – MR MAKE BELIEVE – Can win also if gate 1 ok….
ROSEHILL

Race 1 – 2YO SWP – 1100m
  1. 12 – OTTOMAN – Impressive trial winner and stable’s 2yos are winning everywhere. Pick of the unraced off the trials for mine.
  2. 8 – MISS IDYLLIC – Was backed to beat Godolphin 2yo Bantam (also off excellent trial) but was out bobbed, they ran useful time even though it was busy finish. Ran well prior when left sitting duck for run-ons up straight… behind another Godolphin newly.
  3. 6 – PRIDE OF DUBAI – 1st-start. Showed speed sitting deep in trial, was ridden late but won quite well and is nice, strong type.
  4. 3 – FEAST FOR EYES – Resumes. Was backed and not far away on debut behind a few handy ones. Took sit in trial, railed up and won ok!
  5. 4 – LIGHTNING ROCK – 1st-start. Showed speed in trial and was niggled, lasted to win, there is ability there. Gate?
Race 2 – 3YO BM72 – 1400m
  1. 2 – TESTASHADOW – Good return on tough (Kenso) track for back markers then charged home here, on wet ground, suspect he is better drier, sits closer? Should run well.
  2. 1 – HARRIER JET – Trialled up well then impressed fresh beating last week’s winner Dupe ‘em, easily! 1400m suits better if anything!
  3. 4 – REDOUTABLE HEART – Had wide run and forgive last start. Gallant prior beating handy Good Project into 3rd, and, Testashadow into 4th…
  4. 11 – SNITZLER – Returned a gelding Hawkesbury and bolted in the maiden when long odds-on. One dry run was sound debut to Delectation. Wary here…
  5. 8 – KAEPERNICK – Effortless last start maiden winner himself off good fresh run when cost himself the win, that form is good.
  6. 9 – FINAL DECISION – Has run well to Testashadow/ Good Project and has a case himself.
Race 3 – BM95 – 1400m
  1. 4 – YOU’LL NEVER – Probably ridden a bit warm last time and did not have same electric finale. Made up stack of ground prior in better race than this! Not sure there is mad speed so that is his query here, still, have seen him sprint home off modest tempo.
  2. 3 – PYTHAGOREAN – Going well. Good fight last time and beat home You’ll Never there. May get soft run (again) here and drier ground no issue at all, in fact, probably better suited. Can win.
  3. 1 – RED EXCITEMENT – Resumes. Made nice ground in trial under no riding. Launched late fresh last prep to Emblems who’d be fave here? The 61kg is the query.
  4. 10 – VALCOT – Form is great if you delete the Kenso miss on that bad track! Mad sup nice ground latest on smart one, Vashka, and has a case.
  5. 7 – TIMELESS PRINCE – Back to 1400m here. Was going well before last start misfire. Gets nice run for McDonald.
Race 4 – F&M BM80 – 1200m
  1. 10 – VANILLA PRINCESS – Backed heavy last time but had pressure (from roughie) and wilted late. Back to 1200m here and gets it softer. Her 1200m form is strong! Not a deep race this.
  2. 4 – DREAM EMPRESS – Resumes. Trialled quite well. Had excuses last start (when also fresh), she won her two previous 1st-up runs easily. Stablemate of top-pick so doubt cut each other up.
  3. 1 – KRISTY LEE – Ran OK race Hillside latest off mad tempo. Comes back to Sydney where she performs best, on track she likes, in BM80 class, with claim to 58.
  4. 6 – CHELSEA HOTEL – Easy win over Miss Tenpins last time and that form ties in with top-rater here. All six of her wins have been at 1200m. Has a case!
  5. 2 – HOLY DELUSIONS – Always honest but needs breaks her way to win… Can make case for her and 11- PRETTY UNCANNY…
Race 5 – Metro SWP – 1900m
  1. 1 – OFF THE RAILS – Arrived thanks to miracle bob last time but had to like the chase! He looked there like he already wants a trip, now gets to 1900m and drier ground no issue. Has 59.5kg but happy to stick.
  2. 3 – RESURRECT – Just OK last week on wet. Won three straight prior all on dry ground and beat the flying Paris Match two-back, and she had the last crack at him. Great win.
  3. 12 – IT’S A SILVER TRAIL – Resumes. First Oz start. Trial was OK without raving but have been tricked before with these imports. His form at home is G2 form! Very wary.
  4. 10 – MAGICAL STANCE – Wide and very good 2nd to Off The Rails last time, arguably he was the run of the race and now has weight swing, the query, he has been at 1900m once and did not attack the line that day… Better horse now?
  5. 9 – GHOST PROTOCOL – Good win from tail WFM to 1600m and 1900m suits better. Well up to these but doe snot always ‘’turn up’’… In wider quad.
Race 6 – 1MWLY – 1300m
  1. 1 – HAUSSMANN – Ran 7th in Starlight but had sound late splits and fancy wanted further than 1100m anyway, gets that here, to 1300m in !MW class. Claims down. Boasts photo 2nd to Target In Sight at 1300m at level weights. $26 is crazy overs!!
  2. 4 – CHAMPAGNE CATH – Resumes. Won 2 of 3 fresh and had excuses in miss (when 4th to Windjammer). Rode strong speed in trial and won well. Has touch of class! Good race this though.
  3. 13 – SHIRAZ – Sectional star fresh then top win 2nd-up. Beat all-bar good one (Religify) latest and did close nicely, does act like 1300m will be ok and stays down in weights.
  4. 9 – FORGET – Covered some ground and good effort last time (winner saved ground/ gap 3rd) and drier no problem. Has great record at 1200-1300m range. Beat Windjammer two-back…. so.
  5. 3 – WINDJAMMER – No match Forget two-back but solid then nice ride/win latest and form lines all tie in… Weights?
  6. 12 – FIGHT TO THE LINE – Did well latest chasing hot speed and back to 1200m no issue at all.
Race 7 – BM75 – 1100m
  1. 9 – CRAFTINESS – Chased strong speed two-back and was bloused by Religify who then won so well again, this guy was $1.8F to win. Went to Canterbury latest and was in different class to NMW rivals. May lean his way at better odds??
  2. 4 – RELIGIFY – Produced the finish of a good horse beating Craftiness then they went up wrong/big odds Rosehill, he led and was dominant beating in-form Shiraz and race rated OK relative to Our Boy Malachi same trip on the day. Smart/ On up!
  3. 3 – TERRA AMATA – Odds-on and simply too good for Pretty Uncanny WFM, that horse then won. Her record at 1100m is excellent… Gate? Check pattern.
  4. 11 – SUPREME EFFORT – Resumes. Shows promise and rode strong speed in trial and won well, first two there spaced 3rd and ran time.
  5. 6 – ENCOSTANATI – Wins are spaced but he is going well, the Senta De Noche form I like from two-back. Ran well latest with hardly ideal run. Chance.
  6. 15 – MATIGNON – No weight and form lines work in ok… Do they get a run? Will be odds…..
Race 8 – BM85 – 1500m
  1. 11 – VASHKA – Picks himself. Just dominant again last time with 59kg after towling up subsequent winner Commanding Wit prior. No issue 1500m for mine. Draw is awkward but not going against!
  2. 6 – ALPHA BEAT – Freshened. His best is good enough here taking lines through Vilanova, The Quarterback etc. No recent trial but check betting/ yard. Wary.
  3. 3 – THE ALFONSO – Caught wide fresh and still surged at line, went well. Ran well behind good one in As Needed 2nd-up last prep then won 3rd-up.
  4. 16 – MADDHAL – Chased Vashka fresh and likely fitter, has weight swing and draws better… Must have a case then!
  5. 9 – KORIOBETE – Did enough fresh and did run out of room there… Suited 1500m.
  6. 12 – FRESNAPOL – Some hope but still risking….
Good luck !
Gator
:)

BEST ROUGHIE OF THE DAY:

ROSEHILL – Race 6 No.1 – HAUSSMANN – Ran 7th in Starlight but had sound late splits and fancy wanted further than 1100m anyway, gets that here, to 1300m in 1MW class. Claims down. Boasts photo 2nd to Target In Sight at 1300m at level weights. $26 is crazy overs!!
SUMMARY OF LAST WEEK:
Racing was at SANDOWN (Hillside) on GOOD track. Rail was 4m. The inside lanes were avoided by almost all riders, and was inferior ground, on-pace runners won early, then swooper’s seemed favoured, yet last two races were won on-speed… The strong winds were a likely factor on the day also.
RUN OF THE DAY:
Podium finishes go to GOOD OFFA and HERSTORY but leaning slightly to EVERY FAITH for pointy end of the prize, she was only 1st-up, she went way back off the hot speed in a race most of those out the back were run off their legs, she then really hit the line late!
…In fact, her 11.96 last 200m was only .15 off the day’s fastest and given the early split (47.09 1st-800m) that was a terrific effort/ sectional. The winner was TYCOON TARA who was backed in from as much as $31, sat off the mad speed and ran down DANESTROEM who chased the fast pace, winner had the last crack, and laded the plunge. Of the others PADDY’S GEM worked home well (12.23 last 200m) as did KRISTY LEE (12.14) after looking in bit trouble 600m out, these out the back were in a different race though. The leader JUDICIAL ROCK, I think we will forgive, she recorded a Black Caviar-esq sub-10-second furlong 1000m-to-800m then ran a 10.5 sec split 800m-to-600m… into the headwind. Overall time: 1-17.15 for 1300m
The feature was the Xmas Cup and DANGER CLOSE kept his unbeaten record at the track in-tact running over the top of MR MAKE BELIEVE and leader/ fave LORD OF THE SKY who ran along 34.58 1st-600m but with 60kg, into the headwind, 1st-up, was swallowed-up late, the winner had beaten him home in the past and had a massive 8.5kg weight swing so, those early odds of $14 looked ”silly” from the get go! EIGHT BILLS the veteran ran home well and THE MONSTAR stuck to his task for something touch easier. They ran 57.72 for 1000m.
There were two good 3YO races on the day, the first was Race 2 and winner NORTHROZA impressed, she is still new/ learning, she was a bit tardy away and did not ”ping” when asked, however, she worked through her gears strongly and ran down HERSTORY was sat deep, no cover, all the way and was only worn down late, good effort even allowing for the fence being ”off”. BOUNDARY was making nice ground to the turn then was pushed wide by the winner, she seemed to lose concentration, when balanced up again she was strong late, in fast her last 200m split was only 1/100ths of a second off the winner’s. LOVEHEART LASS was .21 behind her but ran home well from the tail. They ran 1-25.04 for 1400m here.
Race 3 was the other deep 3YO race, this won was at 1000m, leaders ran 34.88 1st-600m (so only .3 slower early than Lord Of The Sky) and the swooper’s trifecta the race. Winner SANG CHOI BAO was a clear last, came widest and had the last look at GOOD OFFA who did it tougher (wide no trail), LOCK AND LOAD was third weaving between runners. BOOMWAA led and did well staying too close to the inside lanes, they ran 58.43 so overall time OK relative to older horses but…. there was 1.5L over the first nine of them so… Jury out on the form for mine.
THE FORGIVE FILE: DE FINE LAGO (not right), MS MAZETTI (poor recovery), CROONER (too close inside/ easier), JUDICIAL ROCK (you are not Black Caviar!), HEZA BARGAIN (limited luck/ room), SIEGESTOR (went inside/ don’t sack). LONHROCKSTAR (mucus found) and FINAL JEST (blew start in on-pace race).
In SYDNEY racing was at ROSEHILL and the Track went from Soft-7, to Soft-6, to Soft-5, then Heavy-8…. A serious task for punters!! The pattern, well, all eight winners were away from the inside rail, you could certainly swoop today.
RUN OF THE DAY: Runners-up this week are TESTASHADOW and SAIGON TEA, winner, going with MAGICAL STANCE in race 3 given the wide trip, no cover, forced wider 700m out yet was out-bobbed on the wire by OFF THE RAILS who had it softer…
… It was a real 3-way go, 3rd-horse was FRESPANOL who led and gave a huge sight, he was in front for 1499m! Winner OFF THE RAILS can win again though over further, he is flying this prep and ran 1-31.18 but realtive times today will mean… zero.
Race 5 was mostly dominated by those on-speed, BEAUTY’S BEAST (is the key wet ground and the ”Sydney way”??) was brave fighting off AMOVATIO (clear pick of the closers) and PYTHAGOREAN (bit too keen early). YOU’LL NEVER was ridden a bit warmer and did not have the same late dash, prefer him ridden cold as ice. KAYPERS worked home OK for easier.
SAIGON TEA impressed onto wet ground back in trip, she sat back last and came widest and ran over MEDCAUT who was every hope, just found one better. They ran 1-15.5 1st-1200m and overall was 1-51.47. 3rd-horse DOWDSTOWN CHARLIE is hard to catch but ran well closer to those inside lanes, wetter the better him. DRAGO is all yours.
Smart win from VASHKA who led and travelled sweetly into the home straight, it was painless to watch, way too good despite 59kg. MADDHAL will be fitter, liked his return and VALCOT off that forgive run Kenso track ran home hard for 3rd at big odds. RICHARD THE FIRST (colder ride) was also much better away from the Kenso… Time: 1-18.73 off 43/07 1st-700m here.
THE FORGIVE FILE:
FURBISH (worst ground), REDOUTABLE HEART (prefer softer run), YOU’LL NEVER (colder ride please) and MOHAVE (no peace/ too wet).
====================================================================================================
WEDNESAY SELECTIONS:
SANDOWN (Lakeside) – Race 3 No.9 – SECOND BULLET
SANDOWN (Lakeside) – Race 7 No.1 – WILD FIRE
Good luck !
Gator
:)