GATOR picks half the card MV

23 Oct GATOR picks half the card MV

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PLEASE NOTE: All ratings for MOONEE VALLEY are for DEAD track. Rail is 2m. As for the pattern, well, it all depends on what happens Friday night with 8 x races there and this rain about may chop the track up a bit. Huge watch/ monitor job over the two days.
In Sydney we are back at ROSEHILL and ratings are for GOOD track. Rail is 6m and only concern here is, if track becomes firm/fast then those running on/ wide can be disadvantaged. again, watch/ monitor and keep an eye on twitter as I will be posting track pattern updates live from Rosehill.
BET OF THE DAY (Melb)
MOONEE VALLEY – Race 5 No.1 – SAVVY NATURE – Strong win Spring Stks Newcastle then forced wide in Gloaming (ran home hard) and arguably beaten by tempo in G1 Spring Champion latest. Small field suits and may wel be simply too good…
BET OF THE DAY (Syd)
ROSEHILL – Race 8 No.5 – HEART TESTA – Big betting drifter fresh and no match for That’s A Good Idea (track record time) then good win with big weight here beating Knight Exemplar (good in hot field next time) and Diamond Earth (wide/ top win last week). The 3kg swing (and now fitter) and That’s A Good Idea swayed me.
BEST VALUE BET OF THE DAY
ROSEHILL – Race 3 No.4 – STAR WARS – Wasn’t bad in Dulcify Stks before sound finale back in class latest, his 11.90 last 200m was good for this, steps to 1900min winnable race (I mean, there are five maidens in it !!). Come up overs at $9 here surely…?
BEST EACH-WAY BET OF THE DAY
MOONEE VALLEY – Race 7 No.2 – SNEEK A PEAK – Went super in Metrop given he was 3-wide for the majority, that form is good through Kingdoms (10th – won last week) and Ibicenco (12th – Won Geelong Cup), oh and Moriarty went very well in a Caulfield Cup. Suited.
BEST ROUGHIE OF THE DAY
ROSEHILL – Race 7 No.9 – HARD LIQUOR – Resumes. Good strong trial win sitting handy and grabbing leader and they spaced the rest. Last fresh run he sat wide yet thrashed Prince Kristen and the handy Agent, then was 1.5L off Mahisara/ Under The Sun 3rd-up. Dry ground key. Looks overs!
LAY OF THE DAY:
ROSEHILL – Race 4 No.3 – MULTILATERAL – He is flying but I have to take him on at even money at the weights…
TOP-RATED RUNNERS:
MOONEE VALLEY
Race 1 – Inglis 2YO – 1000m
  1. 1 – GOOD PRINCE – Was in betting on debut but found trouble key stage (just as winner was building momentum) and ran home very well. Better for that. Draw touch awkward but talented.
  2. 14 – DONELLE – 1st-start. Good trial win in Sydney (was ridden but went well) and first two thrashed 3rd in useful time. Go well.
  3. 7 – CORNROW – 1st-start. No trials. Cost $170k. Dam was an early runner. Gate/Stable ticks.
  4. 8 – HOWDEE – 1st-start. No trials. Dam threw the smart Secret Flyer and big watch here.
  5. 10 – LOCKROY – 1st-start. No trials. Dam was Golden Slipper winning 2yo. Stable have them ready. Wide gate.
Race 2 – Hcp – 1000m
  1. 7 – LANKAN RUPEE – Trialled exceptionally well before brilliant fresh win around here in sharp time. Can lead or sit on Canali and measure right up!
  2. 1 – VATICAN – Impressed here in an earlier 955m race (slightly slower time than Lankan Rupee but, track was rated ”Dead” not good for his win) and did it with 60kg in a race he couldn’t win at the weights… Then good WFA last time. Serious danger.
  3. 2 – ESPRIT DE BULLET – Resumes. Won 3 x races 1st-up and hit line well behind African Pulse (has run well in G1) fresh last prep. Track may be swooping so he is in it.
  4. 3 – FREERETURN – Won this last year but fancy was going better, still, this is an easier version for mine! Ran OK in Testa Rossa at Caulfield and back to favourite track here.
  5. 4 – CANALI – Broke long run of outs winning $100k feature at Cranbourne and if gets soft lead and leaders favoured, he can win.
Race 3 – Hcp – 1200m
  1. 6 – VIBRANT ROUGE – Too classy here fresh. You could argue she should be 3 from 3 second-up and form around Elite Elle / Serene Star is good enough for these.
  2. 4 – RICHIE’S VIBE – Drew bad/ Went back and flashed through at 1200m before held-up touch but had his chance at the 1400m last time. Back to 1200m here sitting off solid speed and can certainly win.
  3. 7 – NEAREST TO PIN – Led/Won in Adelaide last time beating Psychic Mick (had beaten Richie’s Vibe) and Sysmo (won Seymour Cup). In on 54kg limit and can win.
  4. 5 – HENWOOD – Freshened. Won fresh in June with 59.5kg and that form was proven strong. All his MV form is good. Chance.
  5. 11 – AROUSING SUSPICION – Resumes. Won BM72 very, very well fresh last prep at M’ton then thrashed the handy Electic Fusion. Value hope.
Race 4 – Hcp – 2040m
  1. 5 – HVASSTAN – Just fair last time but Coongy race was strong and this has less depth, easily beat Philippi here at this trip last prep and he went on to place in G1 to It’s A Dundeel. Can see him sitting just off modest speed here. Improver.
  2. 6 – OPINION – First Oz start. With C.Waller but no trials to guide us. Has won at Royal Ascot (well) and forgive Ebor fail when worked in the run on wet ground. Drier the better it seems for him.
  3. 3 – ROTHERA – Come up big odds here and he is the one best suited if this rain sticks around, was 2.4L off Moriraty (ran well Caulfield Cup last week) in Brissie Cup 3rd-up last prep. Value!
  4. 11 – BEL THOR – Went very well in strong Cranbourne Cup (you would back the trifecta there in this field right?) and didn’t have ton of luck key stage. Rain about a big plus for him. Can win.
  5. 10 – PHANTOM BREW – Ran 9th last week but had good late sectionals, that off sound win Caulfield. No star but this race lacks depth and sits closer gate 1.
Race 5 – Vase – 3YO – 2040m
  1. 1 – SAVVY NATURE – Strong win Spring Stks Newcastle then forced wide in Gloaming (ran home hard) and arguably beaten by tempo in G1 Spring Champion latest. Small field suits and may wel be simply too good…
  2. 8 – PINSTRIPE LANE – Kept finding line at Flemington latest behind Polanski who then won Norman Robinson beating San Diego and he looks a Derby type. The danger.
  3. 2 – DRAGO – Home Ok but expected better in Spring Champion. Was around 2L off Savvy Nature so needs to make that ground up around here. Another suited small field. Chance.
  4. 3 – TIPS AND BEERS – Was 1200-to-1600m at Caulfield sat back off slow speed and charged over them, only Complicate had faster last 200m split all day. Looks suited 2040m. How good?
  5. 4 – STORM APPROACH – Tough win over Gamblin’ Guru in Listed race in Adelaide, that horse then won Geelong Classic Wednesday. Rolls forward. Has  acase too.
Race 6 – G3 Teslstra Stks – 3YO – 1200m
  1. 4 – THERMAL CURRENT – Raced handy in fast-run Golden Rose and that was a real swooper’s race, still, he was only 3.4L off Zoustar. Freshened and back to 1200m, and needs touch of luck gate 1 but he has the A-grade form.
  2. 5 – RED MAGNET – Easily beat Nite Rocker who then split Lion Of Belfort and Hucklebuck here (both then won Saturday races). Jumped to BM72 and thrashed rivals in fast time.
  3. 1 – VA PENSIERO – Raced without much luck Caulfield and probably should have crossed the line with Lion Of Belfort (winner). Has beaten Dissident and Cluster so is good enough here.
  4. 8 – NOT LISTENIN’TOME – Thrashed the handy Ilgattino on debut then jumped RB64 and won very well again beating Sistine Demon who has run well in City/Sat grade. How good?? Come up odds-on here… Wow!
  5. 3 – DIAMOND OASIS – Loomed/Sound in Lion Of Belfort race (ran well but suspect Va Pensiero can beat him home here). Has Zoustar formlines too…
Race 7 – MV Cup – 2500m
  1. 2 – SNEEK A PEAK – Went super in Metrop given he was 3-wide for the majority, that form is good through Kingdoms (10th – won last week) and Ibicenco (12th – Won Geelong Cup), oh and Moriarty went very well in a Caulfield Cup. Suited.
  2. 6 – MOURINHO – Tough win over Gris Caro with Mr Moet (ran well Caul Cup) behind then very solid in hot Cranbourne Cup. Doubt trip any issue. Go well.
  3. 11 – SHOREHAM – Covered ground in Carnbourne Cup and ran well. Limited luck behind Bass Straight prior and he then ran well to Spurtonic in Coongy. Has a case!
  4. 5 – PRECEDENCE – Jumped 1400-to-2000m in Benalla Cup and went very well, that tops him off and you know he loves MV… Not finished yet.
  5. 9 – GOTTA TAKE CARE – Just can’t leave him out of anything, super genuine/tough, handles anything….
Race 8 – G2 WFA Crystal Mile – 1600m
  1. 10 – TOYDINI – Very good in G1 Epsom behind Boban and ahead of Spurtonic, comes up to WFA today but is is high-class and a very strong miler. Sits off solid speed here and can’t see him running poorly!
  2. 3 – SPEEDINESS – Another up from G1 Hcp’s to WFA but, you could argue, the two G1 Hcp 4ths he was as good as any run in the race in both. Now finally draws a gate and can sit a few lengths closer… and win!
  3. 9 – SACRED FALLS – Sound finale in Epsom and has relative weight advantage on Toydini from that race (sectionals only slightly inferior to those of Toydini) and this rain about is a huge plus for him.
  4. 6 – BLACKIE – Come wide way out and went super in Toorak. Brilliant win over smart Seritorius prior and come back better than ever this prep. Rain certainly won’t hurt him either.
  5. 5 – MALAVIO – Another through Epsom, he sat handy and gave his all there crossing line with Spurtonic. Had excuses prior. maps well. Rain/Wet ok.
Race 9 – I’national Stks – 1600m
  1. 10 – LUCKY LAGO – Best of the closers last time in a race nothing emerged from the back and winner Sharnee Rose had beaten Red Tracer prior. Expecting around double-figures for her… The value in tough race here?
  2. 2 – LAKE SENTENTIA – Did enough fresh then really found the wire at Flemington running slightly quicker late splits than Fire Up Fifi (good again last week to Red Tracer) and peaks 3rd-up, sits closer from gate 2, and ready to win.
  3. 3 – ZONZA – Strong on line winning last week when only 2nd-up and beat a quality mare in Bonaria doing it. That Bonaria form ties in key players here. Very much on the up. Won 3rd-up last prep.
  4. 7 – CAMEO – Looks in need of 1600m and looks ready 3rd-up, her last 3rd-up run she beat Royal Descent who then won an Oaks by 10L. Good case made!
  5. 1 – CATKINS – Super genuinebut can she cart 59kg and beat these? Under the odds for mine but not potting.
Race 10 – G1 WS COX PLATE – WFA – 2040m
  1. 11 – IT’S A DUNDEEL – Superstar. Only horse to beat Atlantic Jewel, who then made Foreteller/ Super Cool look silly. Setback obviously no bonus hence the bookies taking him on. Reality is he probably needs to be significantly better than them to win now, I think he is, I’ll stick !!
  2. 8 – PUISSANCE DE LUNE – Dashed through in Turnbull and looked winner, behind him was Fawkner/ Jet Away and Dear Demi all terrific in a Caulfield Cup. Sits handy, jar out of track ideal and will be strong at the end of 2040m.
  3. 10 – MULL OF KILLOUGH – They blamed firm track for Arlington miss. Royal Ascot 2nd and big finish in hot G1 Suingapore I’national say he can measure up and looks juicy at $51.
  4. 1 – GREEN MOON – Raced bit flat in this last year as fave but comes in ‘fresher’ this time (3rd-up) and was only 4L off It’s A Dundeel/ Atlantic Jewel in Underwood despite tempo being dead-against… Hmmm.
  5. 3 – FIORENTE – Flashed home in Turnbull (best closing splits) and little between he and Puissance (and Happy Trails). Shuffled down order a bit as wonder if he is looking for touch further now? Still, goes in
  6. 15 – SHAMUS AWARD – Last two have been excellent and wonder if he can get that ”3rd-fence/ All Too Hard run” from last year… Maiden (amazingly) but some hope here.
  7. 14 – LONG JOHN – Won 5 of 7 and been as good as any run in the race his two misses. Strong win in Guineas (like All Too Hard).
ROSEHILL
Race 1 – 2YO – 1100m
  1. 2 – BOLD CIRCLE – Caught 4-wide and ran super in Breeders Plate on debut, back in 8th was Scratch Me Lucky who sat back/wide and charged home at Randwick last week. Draws better today!
  2. 1 – UNENCUMBERED – Was $3.9-to-$5.5 on debut and had the run/won ok. Stablemate Baio is down to run MV Race 1 and he comes through that race so there may be a form lead there?
  3. 5 – NEXT LEVEL – 1st-start. Shared speed in trial, took over and won well under a hold 11/10 in 46.7. Gate awkward but neat trial.
  4. 10 – SHEER STYLE – 1st-start. Showed speed off rail and won her trial just as well, that same day running .10 faster than Next Level.
  5. 8 – LANIKAI – 1st-start. Shared speed and kicked 1L clear then kept going in good trial win 17/10.
Race 2 – 3YO BM75 – 1400m
  1. 5 – RAUNCHY ROCKER Liked her debut win coming from off the modest (49.3 1st-800m) speed and running over Quayside who boasts a 3rd to Arabian Gold/ Stamina, 3rd-horse Marmelo won Kenso Wednesday too. Backing her to beat the fave here.
  2. 2 – CHATEAU LAFAITE – All honours to her last time, she went back and overraced then peeled wide and still got over them, I do have my doubts on that form (busy finish) and runner-up Gamblestown was unplaced last week with every possible chance in running.
  3. 6 – FOREIGN PRINCE – Impressed winning his maiden racing away late in smart overall time of 1-22.18 for 1400m. Bred to keep improving.
  4. 1 – EARNEST DESIRE – Held his ground OK last time and gets senior rider (Cassidy) but meets Chateau Lafaite .5kg worse for being well held by her.
  5. 3 – FORGET MAYBE – Won well on debut when backed and Dedline down to run fri Night at Canterbury.
Race 3 – 3YO BM64 – 1900m
  1. 4 – STAR WARS – Wasn’t bad in Dulcify Stks before sound finale back in class latest, his 11.90 last 200m was good for this, steps to 1900min winnable race (I mean, there are five maidens in it !!).
  2. 5 – QUAYSIDE – Kicked clear but was run over by Raunchy Rocker last time, how did she go against the fave in previous? 3rd-horse won midweek. That 3rd to Arabian Gold/ Stamina reads very well.
  3. 3 – SUPER VILLAIN – Just missed Fields Of Tuscany before stepping to 2000m at Hanwkesbury and thrashing his rivals there. Progressive. Can measure up here!
  4. 2 – ABBASSO – Close-up in good form race before just missing last time when jumping to 1600m. Chance.
  5. 1 – RUTHERGLEN – In-form and races handy and has five maidens to beat so….
Race 4 – BM80 – 2000m
  1. 8 – PUNCH YOUR WEIGHT – Wide no cover all way and had no hope last week. Came wide a way out and kept closing prior. Have to give another go at the odds.. First go 2000m but looks ok. Overs???
  2. 1 – YULALONA – Hardly disgraced last couple in strong country cups. If going on photo 2nd to Mr O’Ceirin from Grafton Cup you’d say he would go very close here with 57.5kg.
  3. 2 – MARDEN – Didn’t quicen but surged late (had slightly faster late split than Multilateral) and now has this huge 5.5kg weight swing. Can turn tables!
  4. 3 – MULTILATERAL – Simply too good last time. His form in this country at 1800m+ is terrific. Beat Ecuador two-back! Bit harder at the weights but not saying can’t win… Just shopping at ‘the overs’…?
  5. 6 – GRAND DAUGHTER – Comes back a notch here and 3rd-up out to 2000m expecting better. Did run 2nd in an Oaks at 2000m in April and won MV her other go 2000m range.
Race 5 – F&M BM80 – 1400m
  1. 9 – MYAMIRA – Resumes. Caught wide in Dark Jewel at Scone fresh last prep yet charged home anyway, then struck wet tracks which aren’t her go. No stars here and come up good overs early markets.
  2. 3 – PENDOLIN – Progressing well. Big win from last WFM running over Generalife (who then won just as well) and ran sharp 1-22.75 doing it. Stays at 1400m?? Can win.
  3. 1 – GOLD EPONA – Weaved through and closed well in Angst (sound sectionals) and that race was deep (Sharee Rose had beaten Red Tracer/ Queenstown 2nd looks hard to beat MV Friday night). Back to 1400m only tiny query. Good chance.
  4. 6 – CHATHAM HOUSE – First go 1400m last time and tough win/effort, back in 3rd was Hoybell who you would entertain here. maps well.
  5. 7 – FULMINATE – Another on-pacer in teh mix here if they dodged Friday night with her.
Race 6 – BM85 – 1500m
  1. 3 – LANDING – Did a stack of work 1st-up off long speed and had to fade, he did but was only 2.5L off That’s A Good Idea and now fitter, blinkers off, drawn in and T.Berry replaced T.Huet… Don’t sack.
  2. 8 – GENERALIFE – Top finale/win Kenso beating King Cobia (then won) and Commission (tipping runs well Fri night Canterbury), that was off a solid 47.7 1st-800m speed. Last prep he had form around Snitzerland and Hosting. Danger.
  3. 7 – CAPITAL COMMANDER – Led and stuck well in strong Angst Qlty at Randwick latest and drop back to 1500m a plus if anything.. Back to restricted grade too. Maps well (leads or sits 2nd).
  4. 6 – REUNITE – Secured inside runs and did attack the line latest when just missing the gifted That’s A Good Idea (so beat Landing) and yes 1500m. Has claims obviously…
  5. 1 – CHOICE BRO – Looked every hope last time but didn’t finish off at end of 1600m. No surprise they come back to 1500m. Previous 3rd to Boban and Qld winner Belltone reads well.
Race 7 – BM80 – 1100m
  1. 9 – HARD LIQUOR – Resumes. Good strong trial win sitting handy and grabbing leader and they spaced the rest. Last fresh run he sat wide yet thrashed Prince Kristen and the handy Agent, then was 1.5L off Mahisara/ Under The Sun 3rd-up. Dry ground key. Looks overs!
  2. 14 – MONBAZILLAC – Returned a gelding but was slow out, checked midrace then darted through and just missed, the run was huge (should have won) and serious winning hope here on that. Stays at 1100m and gate 1 so needs luck is all.
  3. 13 – WORDS ARE WEAPONS – Freshened. Was off similar freshen when 4.5L off Prettyhappyaboutit and Thermal Current in Lightning Stks in Adelaide. Her Kristy Lee form I like too.
  4. 4 – REFLECTANCE – Good roughie here?? Trialled lovely then ran on from way back Vs bias fresh before used up midrace Flemington and another forgive run. Can improve sharply.
  5. 10 – RASTRO – Beat Monbazillac fresh and no knock, maps well again.
  6. 11 – GENTEEL – Through same race, fitter, limited luck there, has claims also…
Race 8 – BM95 – 1200m
  1. 5 – HEART TESTA – Big betting drifter fresh and no match for That’s A Good Idea (track record time) then good win with big weight here beating Knight Exemplar (good in hot field next time) and Diamond Earth (wide/ top win last week). The 3kg swing (and now fitter) and That’s A Good Idea swayed me.
  2. 6 – THAT’S A GOOD IDEA – Fast (track record) win then good in strong Cameron but 1500m tested. Led/Lasted latest after setting strong speed. Back to 1200m… Serious hope.
  3. 4 – DISCIPLE – Resumes. Ran home nice under no riding in nice trial effort. Big finish/win fresh last prep here beating Big Bonanza who is hard to run over! Can win.
  4. 3 – TESTARHYTHM – Resumes. Trialled OK too. Won 2 of 5 fresh and was good 3rd to Pentasia (that is Big Bonanza form) fresh last time in. Chance here.
  5. 10 – GOLDSTONE – Big odds but no knock on last win coming from midfield after covering ground! Taking that at face value and goes in here…
Good luck !
Gator
🙂
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