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Archive for June, 2013

It looked a tough card at Flemington on Saturday but our form guru David Gately was all over it:

Winners: Lady Lakshmi (he was keen), The Cleaner ($10 was shopped) and Pago Rock (“don’t sack” punters were told)

Add to that a juicy quaddie tipped in his top-rated runners section.

Best value tipping service on the web at just $29.99 per month (works out $6.90 per week approx.) which is amazing!

PLEASE NOTE:
All ratings for MOONEE VALLEY are for SLOW/ HEAVY track. Rail is TRUE which means run-ons, off the inside, will likely get their chance here. In Sydney we are at ROSEHILL. Ratings are for SLOW track. Rail is 6m. Expecting winners to be away from the inside lanes here too.

BET OF THE DAY (Melb)
MOONEE VALLEY – Race 2 No.2 – MR MAKE BELIEVE – Opened $8 fresh, was backed $5.5-to-$4.4 on the day, and was far too good with .5kg over limit. If anything, 1200m suits better, if anything wet ground suits better. Meets Sea Lord 5kg better for their Spring clash.

BET OF THE DAY (Syd)
ROSEHILL – Race 8 No.6 – DESTINY’S KISS – Just didn’t quicken in time (was behind a wall) then launched late last week and they spaced 3rd. Has backed-up and ran very well in past. Love his 2000m form around Midnight Martini for this and bet he sits right up on speed at this trip. Don’t drop off !!

BEST VALUE BET OF THE DAY
MOONEE VALLEY – Race 7 No.1 – MR O’CEIRIN – Hit the line sweetly fresh (home 11.82 was race fastest) when close-up 6th, 7th was Swan Hill Cup winner Under The Eiffel. Last 2nd-up run he split Folding Gear (then good in Caulfield Cup) and Exceptionally in Naturalism Stks. Big weight but fancy is too good for them! No big odds but do think we are shopping 1-2 points overs at $4.5

BEST EACH-WAY BET OF THE DAY
ROSEHILL – Race 4 No.5 – CRADLE ME – Doubt was suited back to 1300m last time and she didn’t ping but was strong late, in fact she had clearly the fastest last 200m split there, back out to 1400m now!

BEST ROUGHIE OF THE DAY
MOONEE VALLEY – Race 4 No.2 – ROCK PRINCESS – Liked her midweek but she just went way too far back in on-pace race. Her 1.9L 6th this track/trip in a Stocks Stks (at WFA) is great form for this. Loves wet. Suspect you will see $10 around the traps and looks the value.

Lay Of The Day:
MOONEE VALLEY – Race 3 No.2 - TRUFFLE – Bit harder at weights here and come up fave so can risk…

 

TOP-RATED RUNNERS:

 

MOONEE VALLEY

Race 1 – 2YO Hcp – 1200m

  1. 4 – BOER – Was very new on debut but closed well late then had little luck key stage on wet at Lakeside when well fancied, winner (debutante for M.Kent) might be smart too. Tough start this though.
  2. 3 – PRINCE HARADA – Was $1.8-to-$1.75 on debut and sprinted quick for top win. Runner-up was then beaten 3L at Flemington Saturday so on that line alone who should measure right up. Was spruiked post-race by trainer.
  3. 6 – OUR MISS BOSSY – Nailed on line on debut then turned tables on Double Pockets on wet at start two and went through the ground very well, big tick as expecting this track to be genuinely wet.
  4. 2 – I’M READY FOR THIS – Backed $3-to-$2.7 on debut and raced away to win by 5L thrashing Our Casanova who then ran 3rd to Countersnip at Wodonga. Wet?
  5. 5 – THE QUARTERBACK – 1st-start. Smart trial winner running down the leader and they got right away from 3rd. Half to the very talented Philippi. Tough start!

Race 2 – Hcp – 1200m

  1. 2 – MR MAKE BELIEVE – Opened $8 fresh, was backed $5.5-to-$4.4 on the day, and was far too good with .5kg over limit. If anything, 1200m suits better, if anything wet ground suits better. Meets Sea Lord 5kg better for their Spring clash.
  2. 1 – SEA LORD – Resumes. Good 2nd to Undeniably in Xmas Stks fresh last prep giving him 2kg. Unbeaten (4 from 4) here. Has placed on heavy as a youngster. Relative weights against but super, super genuine and a danger.
  3. 7 – TACKLEBERRY – Absorbed pressure and kicked strong here last time but was nailed late by a good filly in Hai Lil and had near 60kg! Big weight relief. Handles wet but is probably a length better dry.
  4. 3 – ZEDI KNIGHT – Didn’t have much luck behind Mr Make Believe (meets 2kg better) then wide/forgive Swan Hill in $100k race. Wet ok. Has a case.
  5. 6 – DEE BEE NINE – Led and faded in that Gold Topaz at Swan Hill but Pago Rock form prior reads well. Likes Slow ground but if very heavy I’d be nervous…

Race 3 – 3YOF Hcp – 1200m

  1. 6 – NADEEM LASS – Good return on heavy when 2nd to Truffle (meets 3.5kg better) who then won again. Last 2nd-up run she was a food 2nd to Summer Gem and meets her 2.5kg better today, and has had the one run back.
  2. 3 – SUMMER GEM – Resumes. Trial was OK without raving 27/5. Knuckled down well and ran over Nadeem Lass fresh-up last prep then beat Octavia 2nd-up. Loves wet.
  3. 9 – NELLA FANTASIA – Good return at 1000m/Geelong when ran home hard in slick time. 1200m suits better. Was 1.75L off Octavia 3rd-up last prep (gap to 3rd) then 2nd to Hazard. Wet no issue.
  4. 1 – BLOOMINGDALE MISS – Poleaxed last week, forget. Wasn’t bad Flem/1200m prior when 2nd-up. This 1200m will suit better (MV not Flem’ton). Has won 1400m and likes wet. Claim useful.
  5. 2 – TRUFFLE – Flying and loves wet ground. Knuckled down well to score here last time. Weights make things tougher but a must include also.

Race 4 – F&M BM89 – 1600m

  1. 2 – ROCK PRINCESS – Liked her midweek but she just went way too far back in on-pace race. Her 1.9L 6th this track/trip in a Stocks Stks (at WFA) is great form for this. Loves wet. Suspect you will see $10 around the traps and looks the value.
  2. 4 – MOREAU – Led/Won handy maiden before straight to 3yoF $100k race at Caulfield and won again (pattern did help). Is G2 placed here at 1600m from Spring. She looks the leader again here but there are queries: Rail True and first go wet.
  3. 1 – ROCCIN JO – Good MV mare and good miler. Has 3 x wins this track/trip. Claims won 2kg above limit. Draws out but slots in 4th on my ”map” and wet ok. danger.
  4. 3 – ALIBERANI – Swimmer! Won 4 from 4 on heavy now and did beat top-pick Rock Princess in that midweek race. Go well if stable backs-up.
  5. 6 – SPIN THE BOTTLE – Had little luck fresh at Donald. Quicly to 1600m but is 1 from 1 2nd-up and 1 from 1 heavy (that was a 5L win!!). Chance too.

Race 5 – 3YO Hcp – 1500m

  1. 7 – OSSENHAGEN – Gave track record a scare at Geelong fresh then went to 0-68/1400m and thrashed a handy field at Bendigo, again he ran time, some 1.26 seconds quicker than older horses in previous race. First go wet the unknown.
  2. 4 – AVA’S DELIGHT – Was real keen last week and reckon she should have won it (slow out/ found traffic) and 1500m suits better. Likes wet and, yep, still rating that win over Super Cool at 1600m!!
  3. 1 – HUNGER – Was month off into last run here, kicked away but was nutted by Digitalism with Medvedev (coming off 2nd to Desert Wizard) in 3rd. Back to 1500m no major issue. Claim is clever.
  4. 2 – UNDERESTIMATION – Sitting shot up on hot speed in that Desert Wizard race Flem’ton then did a power of work here in the Hunger race and faded. To 1500m a plus and gets softer run. Improver at odds.
  5. 5 – BATMAN – No match for Ossenhagen at Bendigo but beat all the others and they ran some 8L faster than older horses that day. Wet no issue. In the mix.

Race 6 – Hcp – 1500m

  1. 6 – DEL PALIO – The 1000m was too sharp fresh. Onto wet out to 1424m at Sale and won $40k Open Hcp impressively. Good 3rd to Felidea in March ties in well and 4.5kg weight advantage is significant. Value hope $8-ish.
  2. 5 – FELIDEA – Went forward against his, and the raceday pattern last week and sat wide, forgive! In fact, to hold on and be beaten 3.95L was a good effort. Was 5-weeks between runs too. Never seen wet.
  3. 10 – DIGITALISM – Handy 3yo who chased Hunger well to win here with Medvedev 3rd, that’s handy off-season 3yo form. Wet no issue but wonder if back to 1500m could hurt and is skinny at $2.5…Hmmm.
  4. 3 – SPACECRAFT – Jumped in trip 2nd-up and went too far back. Fitter/1500m/Onto track he loves, with no weight, he’ll run well but last win many moons ago…
  5. 1 – SEA GALLEON – Resumes. Has won twice fresh and 1500m can suit if ready. Claim/Wet pluses.

Race 7 – Hcp – 2040m

  1. 1 – MR O’CEIRIN – Hit the line sweetly fresh (home 11.82 was race fastest) when close-up 6th, 7th was Swan Hill Cup winner Under The Eiffel. Last 2nd-up run he split Folding Gear (then good in Caulfield Cup) and Exceptionally in Naturalism Stks. Big weight but fancy is too good for them!
  2. 5 – DE FINE LAGO – Good 2nd to smart Lake Sententia this track/trip latest when 3rd-up off long (96-weeks) break says he is just about ready to win again. He has the class, he was 3rd to Tullamore and Glass Harmonium in a Bris Cup remember!
  3. 9 – SMARTY MAC – Out to middle-distance his last two and won them both, 2nd last time was Micken who then gave Fulgur a scare at Flemington last week. Has a case.
  4. 7 – WESTSOUTHWEST – Can really mix his form but nice finale last week and backs-up out to 2040m and proven wet so in wider bets.
  5. 6 – SECESSIO – Has claims on he De Fine Lago formline also but not sure can turn tables on him…??

Race 8 – Mares Hcp – 1200m

  1. 11 – JOHANNAPINE – Wasn’t far away against handy males fresh then held-up/charged here and looked stiff. Last 3rd-up run she was nailed by Serene Star and gave her 4.5kg that day. Wide gate a plus now? Go well.
  2. 8 – DRAW FORWARD – Had track bias against fresh then sound in good race last time. Can peak now and her MV form is good… in good races too.
  3. 2 – ROYAL BENDER – Good ride/win Caulfield beating Serene Star into 3rd. Her last wet track run she was photo 2nd to now multi G1 winner Platelet at WFA. She can certainly win this!!
  4. 1 – CLASSY CHLOE – Had little luck at Swan Hill. Had pressure and split Royal Bender/ Serene Star prior (leader bias though) but never seen wet.
  5. 3 – CAPITAL COMMANDER – Reusmes. Won 3 x races fresh and has claims
  6. 4 – QUEEN DELIGHT – Top win last time but now for 1200m???

 

ROSEHILL

Race 1 – 2YO SWP – 1500m

  1. 7 – ESTONIAN PRINCESS – Had no weight but did a great job to go down in photo here latest when wide all the way, had wide run prior at Scone too in $140k race, looks suited 1500m. Happy to back her.
  2. 1 – AMOVATIO Beat Brilliant Terror on debut before running 5th to he (and Estonian Princess) here on wet but doubt was in teh A-ground and 3kg swing on Estonian will help.
  3. 9 – AMALIEHAVEN – Hit line sweetly on debut then again closed well 2nd to and that Flying Sebring form has been franked. Yes 1500m. In this.
  4. 3 – KOROIBETE – Sent out huge odds on debut but made up plenty of ground behind a couple of above-average 2yo’s. Better for that!
  5. 2 – RYKER – Some hope but happy to lay if wet…

Race 2 – 3YO BM77 – 1200m

  1. 2 – RELAXED AND HAPPY – Went hard and was driven mad up front last time off a slashing return run and had poor recovery too so hapy to forgive and forget. Thtashed Group winner Happy Galaxy on wet last year. Nash replaces apprentice.
  2. 9 – TURBULENT JET – Has a stack of talent and upside this boy, big finale fresh then to city NMW race and produced another ripper finish to win again. Gets plenty of weight off Relaxed And Happy… Bet he measures up!
  3. 4 – KNOYDART – Sat off the fast pace and ran home nicely here latest in same race as many, wonder if he wants 1400m now, that’s only tiny query, but winning hope.
  4. 3 – EMBLEMS – Of course, he won that same race and was only 2nd-up and on wet for the first time so no knock…
  5. 10 – RED DYNAMITE – Drove leader mad last time and had to fade, forgive him also, chance.

Race 3 – 3YO BM76 – 1500m

  1. 7 – DARCIWOOD – Broke track record at Geelong on debut then good 3rd to Emblems/ Knoydart and that form will have been tested by now. To 1500m and in 52kg (below limit) after claims. Go well.
  2. 3 – HUNTER JACK – Has a good finish on him, got very close in the end last time off strong finale/win prior on wet and do think 1500m is what he wants.
  3. 1 – MIGHTY LUCKY – Just missed here last time and 3rd was Index Linked who was short (and coming off explosive win). Back to own age here but jumps to 59kg. One wet run was Ok in Gosford Guineas.
  4. 9 – MASAHIKO – 3rd to Turbulent Jet (ran previous) before stuck on well last week. Split Albrecht and Your Song on wet one day!
  5. 2 – GULLIBLE – Forgive last run in inferior ground but has to be some query at 1500m and looks some unders…

Race 4 – F&M BM82 – 1400m

  1. 5 – CRADLE ME – Doubt was suited back to 1300m last time and she didn’t ping but was strong late, in fact she had clearly the fastest last 200m split there, back out to 1400m now!
  2. 16 – HOUSTON BENEFACTOR – Might be ready to fire 3rd-up after finding line nicely 2nd-up and boasts a good 3rd to She’s Clean and today’s rival Berrimilla at 1400m… Overs??
  3. 8 – BERRIMILLA – Well backed ($9-to-$5) fresh and closed ok in leader dominated race. Fitter. Has won 2 of 3 second-up and as mantioned formlines tie in…
  4. 3 – FORARAINYDAY – Finally gets the blinkers on here and that may mean sits closer! Got bit lost last time and made up plenty of ground, that form stood up (Coup Ay Tee / Under The Sun etc.)
  5. 1 – COMBAT KITTY – Desperate for 1400m and bet they sit close ron her here too. No issue wet. Improver.
  6. 14 – MISS READY – Obviously has a case too.

Race 5 – Hcp – 1400m

  1. 6 – SAID COM – Heavily backed last time (bookies went up $10 – jumped $3.4) but just gave too big a start, he made up a stack of ground, the extra 50m to 1400m here will help. Bowman up won’t hurt! D-day?
  2. 5 – NOCTURNELLE – Could have trialled better but the fresh run was good when ran home nicely for 2nd beating home Said Com. She has 2nd-up form and likes wet. Been in quinella 5 of 6 here and was luckless in the miss.
  3. 1 – KONTIKI PARK – Resumes. Good trial when sprinted quick (was ridden) and last fresh run was a win, here, at 1400m with 58.5kg beating Said Com into 3rd. Flies for Nash!
  4. 2 – BOLD GLANCE – Trialled well before fresh run when sat handy but faded. Wasn’t far off Fontelina and Co. in good race at Scone 2nd-up. 3rd-up to 1400m and maps well. In the game.
  5. 7 – ZARATONE – Had pressure/forgive last week. Looks solo leader here and can give a huge sight… First go 1400m the obvious (big) query but have seen many pressured and fail at 1200m then get softer lead/tempo and led all the way at this trip.

Race 6 – BM85 – 1100m

  1. 10 – GOLDEN SUNSHINE – Resumes. Led/Won untouched in smart trial win. Beat older/males fresh last prep then held off all-bar Catkins in Fireball. Hard to beat.
  2. 9 – SESSIONS – Resumes. Trialled super also when ran home hard under no riding (gap 3rd) and is unbeaten fresh, in the latest he led and held on to beat… wait for it… Catkins so little between these two on that line.
  3. 8 – VELROSSO – Resumes. Sat back/Went wide and ran on under no riding, he was good also! Big fresh win from tail last prep then beat now G1 placed Aeronautical. Pick of the older horses for mine.
  4. 11 – AGENT – Drew bad but weaved through for top win against the pattern at Scone. That Fireball form stacked up very well last week! Never seen wet.
  5. 6 – GASQUET – Good risk in pressure race for mine last time. She’s Clean franked that form again. 3rd-up here on wet but again, there looks real pressure on paper.
  6. 4 – HURRARA – Also has a case but may ned to take sit…

Race 7 – BM85 – 1350m

  1. 4 – FIREBALL – Heavily backed here last time and sat wide no cover then couldn’t hold off Disciple. Onto wetter will not hurt. The 1350m will suit too. Go well.
  2. 1 – DSICIPLE – Top return win then stayed at 1200m 2nd-up yet wound-up super and ran over Fireball anyway. If anything, 1350m suits better, claim a help and handles Slow ground but any wetter may be a query.. Gate? Pattern?
  3. 12 – SASTRUGA – Didn’t have quite enough galloping room for mine fresh and was good. That Oakfields Command form has been stamped too. Unbeaten (2 from 2) 2nd-up and proven Slow (no worse). In this.
  4. 10 – INFINITE ENERGY – Just got lost last time, inclined to forgive. Better suited 1350m anyway. His British General form at 1400m in Melb I like for this class of race… In everything.
  5. 3 – EARNEST ERNEST – Nice finish in Disciple race latest with 58kg. No wins beyond 1200m but has placed twice at 1400m and handles wet well.
  6. 7 – PERON – Won 5 of 6 and was a good 3rd after missing the kick in slowly run race in the miss. Not sure well weighted 56kg against older males is all…

Race 8 – Kensei Hcp – 2000m

  1. 6 – DESTINY’S KISS – Just didn’t quicken in time (was behind a wall) then launched late last week and they spaced 3rd. Has backed-up and ran very well in past. Love his 2000m form around Midnight Martini for this and bet he sits right up on speed at this trip. Don’t drop off !!
  2. 3 – ILLO – Really found the wire here last time and 2000m ideal now. Has run Ok at WFA at 2000m and won at 2400m. danger.
  3. 2 – CANTONESE – Getting closer it seems. Stuck to task very well when .7L off Illo last time, 3rd-up, and his 2000m form is terrific.
  4. 1 – FIREBOLT – Liked him last time but was set fair task coming wide (no trial) from long way out. Weights make it hard but Bowman to offset that? Has run well at 2000m without winning.
  5. 10 – YULALONA – Even effort last time 2nd-up and fitter/2000m says has a case.
  6. 4 – MERLIN MUSTANG – If runs 2000m has good case too…