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Archive for May, 2013

PLEASE NOTE:
All ratings for CAULFIELD are for DEAD track. Rail comes back to 3m (after being way out at 14m last time and on-pacer’s fared well). With rain about I’d doubt any mad on-pace pattern will eventuate but watch/monitor. In Sydney we are back at ROYAL RANDWICK and ratings are for HEAVY track. Rail is TRUE. Plenty of rain about still, as I type…

BET OF THE DAY (Melb)
CAULFIELD – Race 9 No.5 – STRAWBERRY BOY – Excellent return win sitting outside the lead on a strong 47.5 1st-800m and surged clear running fast overall time 1:21.8. Remains unbeaten (5 from 5) in races below 2000m. Streets Away from the race won last week. One to beat.

BET OF THE DAY (Syd)
RANDWICK – Race 3 No.6 – PRINCE JESTER – Won like a horse going places in Sandown last time against the older horses and seems to handle wet well. Suited 2000m and strikes a race where key rivals come through questionable form-race. Gate means better odds?

BEST VALUE BET OF THE DAY
CAULFIELD – Race 6 No.3 – MR MAKE BELIEVE – Resumes. In .5kg over limit and last fresh run he split Golden Archer and now multiple G1 winner Platelet. Jar out of track ideal. Very well placed but concede luck (pattern?) from gate 1 at 1000m is important. Surprised is $8.

BEST EACH-WAY BET OF THE DAY
RANDWICK – Race 6 No.9 – DEE’N'GEE – Resumes. Good trial win. Had little hope Caulfield fresh last prep in slowly run race won by Golden Archer in fast time. Had excuses most of last prep in some decent races too. Has won on heavy. Keen runs well.

BEST ROUGHIE OF THE DAY
RANDWICK – Race 5 No.6 – ZAUBERFLOTE – Found the 1200m too sharp fresh (dídn’t quicken but ran on nicely late & through line). Her one run beyond sprint trip was probably her best when home hard against the pattern Rosehill in Nov. wet?? $13 worth a play??

Lay Of The Day:
RANDWICK – Race 6 No.12 – GASQUET - Good wetty but up a notch here and suprised is fave… Goes in quad but betting around.

 

TOP-RATED RUNNERS:

 

CAULFIELD

Race 1 – 0-62 – 2000m

  1. 7 – PRISONER OF WAR – Wasn’t bad in Chairman’s Stks in Adelaide last time and had sound late sectionals here prior in $100k open 3YO. Back to 0-62 here with 57kg. Concede needs luck from gate but certainly overs for mine at $12 early.
  2. 15 – TRIQUETRA – Looked in trouble Seymour latest but came again late, no surprise the blinkers go on here. Gets good run. Month between runs with 58 for filly some query but danger.
  3. 9 – SPENEPI – Didn’t fire Flemington latest but may have had some issues there (rider concerned with action). He was luckless M’ton prior. The Kyneton runin this class was quite good. Overs too?
  4. 18 – STAR ROLLING – Stepped to the mile at start two with blinkers added, sat wide and walked in, looked there like he could go on!
  5. 17 – BRIDIE O’REILLY – Also comes off dominant maiden win and has real upside… Not sure could back as fave but in the mix.

Race 2 – 2YO Hcp – 1600m

  1. 1 – EAGLE ISLAND – Loved the finale to get up score on debut in Adelaide and beat a few who had form around Long John here which should be ok. Nicely related Colt who can progress.
  2. 2 – POLANSKI – Given gun ride to roll the heavily backed Gracious Spirit here and they beat 3rd easily. Step to mile, if anything, suits better? Big threat.
  3. 5 – CELERITAS – The 1000m was to sharp fresh in good form race then sound at M’ton. Good ride/win latest. To 1600m looks a plus. On the up.
  4. 4 – THROW THE KING – Wasn’t bad behind Polanski but needs to find near 7L… Was having just start two and jumped in trip so fancy there is room to improve lengths…

Race 3 – BM95 – 2380m

  1. 3 – DEVISED – Out-bobbed by Scream Machine in $144k Wagga Cup and that winner would be short here. Terrific win prior off wide run. Claims down 53kg. First try trip the unknown but happy to spec at the $8.
  2. 4 – SHINY BUTTONS – Couldn’t hold off promising Motivado in Queens Cup in Adelaide but held 3rd (Finiguerra) clearly and was luckless/good behind Banca Mo prior. Proven can stay so probably the safest way to go.
  3. 2 – VERDANT – Went much, much better ridden colder last time when split Whisper Downs and Auld Burns. Better suited 2380m than 2000m too. Can win.
  4. 1 – FINIGUERRA – Solid in Queens Cup and 1kg pull on Shiny Buttons a help. Had track pattern against when failed W’bool Cup prior. Each-way.
  5. 5 – COUP ACCLAIM – Much better last time back onto drier and has placed in town in Sydney at 2400m. In the mix too.

Race 4 – 3YO Hcp – 1400m

  1. 6 – AVA’S DELIGHT – Pleasing return then good finish in strong off-season race 2nd-up after bad start. Beat Super Cool last prep which is outstanding form obviously. In form rider up but… can she jump with the field??
  2. 4 – PRIMITIVE MAN – Huge finale/win here last time when fresh-up into just second prep. Not many stormed home from the back that day either. Yes 1400m. Go well.
  3. 2 – SCAPOLO – Did walk in fresh in NZ on heavy. No issues drier ground and you could argue he should be unbeaten in three Oz starts. Gate awkward.
  4. 8 – KING KROVANH – Resumes. Yet to miss a place. Green but good maiden winner fresh last prep then placed to handy Lampedusa before win here over Digitalism and Cooldini (won by 12L midweek).
  5. 15 – OSSENHAGEN – Smart win at start three and ran fast time… Stable come straight to town which is a good sign. Chance.
  6. 5 – QUICK SNITZEL – Resumes. Has claims too.

Race 5 – 3YO Hcp – 1100m

  1. 7 – EDGEWOOD – Resumes. Gelded. Two excellent trial wins but missed the start in both (as he keeps doing raceday). His run in Sandown Guineas was as good as anything in that race and in it was Tatra, Lunar Rise etc etc. Can he jump? Is 1100m too sharp?
  2. 1 – ELITE ELLE – Led in very, very slow 37+ second 1st-600m latest but beat two good class older mares and back to own age here, claim to 57kg very important taking on males. Jar out of track ideal. The obvious.
  3. 8 – SPENDING – Resumes. Won Flemington 0-72 race on debut and ran 56.6 for the 1000m beating subsequent stakes winner Agulhas and city winner Octavia then had excuses next two. How good? She is the best value runner here at $11 for mine!
  4. 3 – SO WOTIF – First Oz start. Only top-3 miss was on debut. Is G3 winner at home and form through Saturn Rock reads well.
  5. 9 – SHE CAN SKATE – Resumes. Good debut win (gap 3rd) then split Miss Softsand (smart) and Octavia (ties in well with Spending!) and in the game here too…

Race 6 – Hcp – 1000m

  1. 3 – MR MAKE BELIEVE – Resumes. In .5kg over limit and last fresh run he split Golden Archer and now multiple G1 winner Platelet. Jar out of track ideal. Very well placed but concede luck (pattern?) from gate 1 at 1000m is important.
  2. 11 – UMGETON – Good ride/win here latest in race first three got away from the rest. Her 1000m form is very good. Match fit danger.
  3. 2 – ZEDI KNIGHT – Wasn’t far away in Goodwood last time. Looked bit stiff prior behind Vatican here… Hasn’t been at 1000m for a fair while so that is some query.
  4. 6 – BASIL DA MAN – Resumes. Won 4 of 6 fresh and in one of those misses he was wide on the speed, and ran 4th. Love the 1000m record. Goes in.
  5. 7 – SHADOWFAX – Resumes. Good fresh run when 2.6L off Sea Lord last prep despite working wide in the run. Another not sure 1000m but can go in.

Race 7 – Mares Hcp – 1200m

  1. 7 – VIBRANT ROUGE – Tragedy beaten fresh then unlucky again last time when clear too late and leader crawled through 37-sec 1st-600m. Senior rider (finally) takes over (and D.Dunn in great form) but draws out… Check pattern now, is rail a bit ”off”’???
  2. 1 – SERENE STAR – Top return win 60kg (albeit Vibrant Rouge unlucky) then could not reel in Elite Elle who got away with murder up front on leaders’ track. Has weight advantage on Vibrant Rouge and draws better than her. Go close.
  3. 8 – YOU CAN DANCE – May not have been in the A-ground when beaten by top-2 mentioned here then OK in Adelaide in deep race. Serene Star has 3kg advantage on her but she is in the game.
  4. 4 – CLASSY CHLOE – Did work hard early in Adelaide latest and had to wilt. Trapped wide at WFA prior. She split Detours and G1 winner Mrs Onassis here last spring… The value runner $12??
  5. 10 – RIVIERE – Resumes. Gave all but then in-form Loveyamadly was too strong fresh last prep. Has been in quinella 4 of 5 fresh. Chance.

Race 8 – 3YOF Hcp – 1600m

  1. 4 – MAMA’S CHOICE – Flashed home in Laelia Stks out to the mile last time and now has 4kg swing on Keyama Blue which is significant. Did win here on debut. Has a 3rd to Commanding Jewel on track with give.
  2. 2 – KEYARNA BLUE – Blew the start in Laelia Stks yet was too good anyway! Very promising filly.. Just had to lean to Mama’s Choice with that 4kg pull is all… Little between them.
  3. 16 – USURPER – Covered ground Lakeside latest yet still ran home hard off forgive run fresh when jarred-up. Good 3rd to Bass Straight her 1 x 1600m run. In this!
  4. 11 – MOREAU – Stepped to 1400m and good breakthrough win at Sale in decent maiden on paper. Has been G2 placed at 1600m remember so is good enough to win.
  5. 13 – NAUTICAL – Worked home well here latest at first go 1600m but Benenden box-seated and was too strong. maiden but will win plenty of races.

Race 9 – Hcp – 1600m

  1. 5 – STRAWBERRY BOY – Excellent return win sitting outside the lead on a strong 47.5 1st-800m and surged clear running fast overall time 1:21.8. Remains unbeaten (5 from 5) in races below 2000m. Streets Away from the race won last week. One to beat.
  2. 8 – GOOD VALUE – Top return from last in same race running 11:73 last 200m (2 x 100ths faster than Streets Away) and has 1.5kg advantage on Strawberry Boy now. Goes well 2nd-up/Wants mile. Danger.
  3. 9 – OREGON SPIRIT – Ran home hard against the tempo/pattern here last time and winner there is flying Cosmic Causeway. Good miler. In this.
  4. 17 – UNDERESTIMATION – Was left sitting duck up on speed last week in swoopers’ race and went well. Close-up prior in good off-season 3YO race. Overs/Chance?
  5. 3 – PAKAL – Resumes. First Oz start. Solid trial win ridden out beating another import Bit Of Hell… Who is here… Hmmm.

 

RANDWICK

 

Race 1 – 2YO SWP – 1200m

  1. 2 – EVERAGE – Talented and tough filly unbeaten (3 from 3) on heavy tracks and did a great job with 58kg last time. Two of her three losses were too Overreach and Safeguard !
  2. 7 – BERNABEU – 1st-start. Fastnet Rock Gelding who trialled like a superstar on dry. Looks very gifted. If handles wet will run very well.
  3. 10 – RYKER – 1st-start. Trialled quite well (nowhere near as well as Bernabeu but was solid) and nice pedigree here.
  4. 4 – KNIGHT TEMPLER – Impressed and ran time on debut then good Vs older horses start two. Back to 2yo grade. Chance.
  5. 9 – MR MISSMURT – 1st-start. Also trialled quite well and betting a further guide.

Race 2 – 3YO BM77 – 1400m

  1. 6 – SECRET DELIGHT – Wish she went better last time but it was a Listed race and she did run well in that class prior, out of that race came Diamond Earth to win last week. Unbeaten wet.
  2. 4 – EIGHT STRAIGHT – Was backed fresh but had no luck, that was his first run as a gelding. Is Rosehill winner on heavy ground. Big threat.
  3. 8 – DESTINY RISING – Wide/Worked and bolted in city maiden fresh and boasts a 2nd to Ninth Legion at 1400m.
  4. 1 – OOMPA LOOMPA – Led and kept kicking to win handy BM80 last time and was 7-weeks off into it. Step to 1400m looks no issue, in fact, the tempo of same may help further.
  5. 5 – MISHANI PERSUADER – Handles wet and in light, in form and can place.

Race 3 – 3YO BM74 – 2000m

  1. 6 – PRINCE JESTER – Won like a horse going places in Sandown last time against the older horses and seems to handle wet well. Suited 2000m and strikes a race where key rivals come through questionable form-race. Gate means better odds?
  2. 17 – KIM DYNASTY – Got lost at Rosehill and made up a stack of ground when 1400m-to-1900m and may be the pick of those at odds coming through said questionable form-race…???
  3. 1 – SIR DENZEL – Battled a bit last time but was 4L 3rd to Philippi (then 2nd in derby) and Hippopus (then won St Leger) prior… That run goes close here.
  4. 18 – REMORSE – Did hit the line sweetly (late) at Rosehill and wants every bit of the extra 100m here. Proven to Slow ground.
  5. 4 – QUEENTOWN – Sat handy and gave his all last time and many of those horses are here so that may off-set the fact it was a slow finish/ race.
  6. 5 – RICHIE’S BICKIES – Won that ”slow finish” race and was tough/genuine doing it.

Race 4 – W J McKell Cup – 2400m

  1. 2 – VATUVEI – Doubt was suited back at 2000m latest and only wamed up late, quickly out to 2400m and onto wet, he is unbeaten (2 from 2) on heavy ground.
  2. 6 – STRIKE THE STARS – Swung wide whilst winner (Moriarty) saved ground latest and small field, wet, to 2400m… He did run 4th in ATC Derby at 2400m… Is today the day !?!?
  3. 4 – MOTIVADO – Big boy who won well in Queens Cup beating Shiny Buttons who had Banca Mo form. Would be clear top pick if proven wet but he last wet run at home he was beaten 99L.
  4. 1 – PERMIT – Stuck on OK in Mayor Cup and back out to best trip here… Handles wet but not sure about very wet…?

Race 5 – F&M BM80 – 1400m

  1. 6 – ZAUBERFLOTE – Found the 1200m too sharp fresh (dídn’t quicken but ran on nicely late & through line). Her one run beyond sprint trip was probably her best when home hard against the pattern Rosehill in Nov. wet?? $13 worth a play??
  2. 7 – GULLIBLE – Little luck key stage latest then cut back to inside lanes and definitely should have finished closer there. Worked hard/Faded at this trip prior so still not sure if she runs 1400m out… or if handles wet.
  3. 3 – CAPROSSA – Struggled in Wagga Town Plate. The fresh win in strong midweeker was good. Her one wet track run was a win.
  4. 4 – POTIONS – Sound return on very wet ground then didn’t fire Hawkesbury but that was a much deeper race. Might be safest each-way if it is real wet here…?
  5. 10 – ELFINA – Wasn’t bad latest behind Saturday class horse in Vic in Khalifa and 1400m on wet suits if ridden off speed… Reckon that’s key to her.

Race 6 – Hcp – 1100m

  1. 9 – DEE’N'GEE – Resumes. Good trial win. Had little hope Caulfield fresh last prep in slowly run race won by Golden Archer in fast time. Had excuses most of last prep in some decent races too. Has won on heavy. Keen runs well.
  2. 5 – SHE’S CLEAN – Resumes. Impressed fresh last prep in winning then beat Appearance (multiple G1 winner) before spelling. Handles heavy but beaten fave one dayon ”bottomless” track so… Check rating?
  3. 10 – HURRARA – Led off rail latest and neds it softer than that to win at 1200m as he just gets that trip. Back to 1100m here (won 5 at 1100m) and was a very good 3rd this trip 2-back when sat up on suicidal speed in strong form race. $8 overs?
  4. 12 – GASQUET – Led and beat a good mare in She’s A Stalker last time when fresh. Plummets in weight and has great 2nd-up record… and proven wet. It’s a strong case.
  5. 7 – EMOTIONAL CIRCUS – Has rocket finish on her and form around top-class mares. Last run up north good. Very wet ground her worry.

Race 7 – BM80 – 1200m

  1. 14 – ANEVAY – Trialled super before doing stack of work on speed fresh and faded but held 4th in a race where trifecta all swooped. Has won 2nd-up. Yet to see wet ground the query.
  2. 6 – FALZZON – Worked home well to 1200m 2nd-up when stayed on inside lanes. Draws way out but inside off? Proven wet. Good hope with luck.
  3. 8 – BRIAN’S HONOUR – Ran 11th fresh but went well aftter endured wide run and went early. Fitter. gets it softer and loves wet. Good roughie?
  4. 12 – EMINENT DOMAIN – Off back-to-back wins and little break between runs no issue for him. Last win from tail was on heavy. Gate??
  5. 19 – DECEIVER – Loomed fresh and ran well with pattern no help. The heavy track 4th before spell when luckless key stage says can win this.
  6. 5 – BAY WINDOW – Fresh. Next best but wide race…

Race 8 – BM95 – 1400m

  1. 18 – FORARAINYDAY – Didn’t quicken but sound late latest when found 1200m a bit sharp. Last 1400m run was 1L 3rd to Brightest when found line very well. Handled slow but yet to see heavy.
  2. 12 – RENEWED VITALITY – Gave him good hope at big odds last time but was wide no cover. Fitter? Boasts restrcited grade win over Somepin Anypin!! Unbeaten heavy too!!
  3. 11 – DESTINY’S KISS – Did work home nicely latest when 2nd-up and might be about ready to win again… Won 3 x races on heavy. In this.
  4. 4 – BALAVAN – Just missed Hidden Warrior latest and big tick here is getting onto wet ground. The last bit of 1400m some query but can win.
  5. 7 – COUP AY TEE – Pleasing return and 2nd to Aeronautical 2nd-up last prep reads well since he is now G1 placed. Yes wet.

Good luck !