Ozracingform.com – G1 email – Sydney Cup Day 2013

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PLEASE NOTE:
All ratings for CAULFIELD are for GOOD track. Rail comes out 10m from the 7m spot on April 12. The track was fair that day with no obvious pattern. Expecting the same here but wary (as always) if track becomes very firm, and leader-ish. In Sydney it is RANDWICK again. This time we are on a GOOD track. Rail comes back into 6m spot (was 3m last week on heavy ground) so there is plenty of damage/traffic on those inside lanes, I’d be shocked if we had a leader’s track!

BET OF THE DAY (Melb)
CAULFIELD – Race No.13 – VIBRANT ROUGE – Resumes. Unbeaten (2 from 2) fresh and pitched in here 52kg (below limit) given her 1L 4th to There’s Only One (then beaten 3L in G1) and Loveyamadly from Bellmaine Stks in Feb. $5.50 will do!

BET OF THE DAY (Syd)
RANDWICK – Race 3 No.3 – SKYERUSH – Loves Randwick and has excellent 1600m stats, in fact, at 1600m she is: 9:3-1-2 with 2 x G1 4ths (in Myer Classic’s). Dodged a Doncaster to run here and weighted to win (eg. beat Raspberries and meets her 3kg better).

BEST VALUE BET OF THE DAY
RANDWICK – Race 5 No.3 – FAST ‘N’ ROCKING – Forced very wide in Slipper and ran home well, his 12.04 last 200m was the race fastest and he went every bit as well as subsequent Sires winner Guelph (home 12.28). Has looked 1400/1600m horse for ages now! Come up overs for mine at $7.50

BEST EACH-WAY BET OF THE DAY
CAULFIELD – Race 2 No.10 – NAUTICAL – Should have won first two starts easily for mine, form around both those maidens is excellent. Really hit the wire at Flemington behind Coins and now has 4kg swing… and perhaps more upside… Doubt should be 6-points longer that’s for sure… $9!!

BEST ROUGHIE OF THE DAY
RANDWICK – Race 8 No.15 – SOFT SAND – Back/Wide forgive fresh run. Was running on well when ran out of room late 2nd-up and wasn’t far off 2nd (Arinosa won easy). Looks good speed on paper for her to rocket home and good roughie $18.

Lay OF The Day:
CAULFIELD – Race 7 No.8 – DELEGANCE – Obviously a hope but risking as fave…

TOP-RATED RUNENRS:

1. 3 – HIDDEN MESSAGE – Was 7-weeks between runs into Flemington/1400m latest and really hit the wire (her 11.84 last 200m was the race fastest) and quickly back out to her right distance range and gets gun run.
2. 2 – BLUE RIBBON – Went back from awkward gate and got pulling off slow speed latest, thought she was the best run in the race to run 2nd to Friday Hussey whom she now meets 4kg better. Serious danger.
3. 9 – AVERAU – This filly has the most upside of any in this race, really good win stepping to 2040m at Benalla sweeping to lead and winning running away… Looked city class there!
4. 1 – FRIDAY HUSSEY – Come up big odds for a girl off back-toback wins… Concede weights make it tough but she will sit up on an even tempo (on paper) and is super genuine.
5. 4 – FREEZY – Off back-to-back wins also, her record 2000/2100m is good. Bit more depth here and come up fave but chance.

1. 10 – NAUTICAL – Should have won first two starts easily for mine, form around both those maidens is excellent. Really hit the wire at Flemington behind Coins and now has 4kg swing… and perhaps more upside… Doubt should be 6-points longer that’s for sure… $9!!
2. 3 – COINS – Good sectionals fresh then really impressed at Flemington off fast pace (ran fast time) when joined in quick and raced away! Jumps to 58.5kg but it may not be enough to stop her.
3. 2 – BENENDEN – Was just OK fresh behind Elite Elle/ Red Fez which is strong off-season form. She won her maiden well 2nd-up last prep at 1400m, in fact, she is 3 from 4 at 1400m and was beaten 2.3L on Cup Day in a good race in the miss.
4. 11 – SHERBERT BOMB – Easy maiden win then sound Hillside behind an underrated one. Back to 1400m? In the mix.
5. 6 – EPHEMERA – Another who was just OK last time but may be looking for 1400m now and can improve. Shallow race.

1. 1 – CHURCHILL DANCER – Well ridden and had the last shot at the leaders up straight at Flemington but won well and looks to be improving with every run. Up to 57kg but only meets Tonyboy 1kg worse… Leaning his way.
2. 9 – THE HUNTRESS – Produced a very good finale to win on debut. Australia Day was back in 4th and that form reads well for this. Only tiny, tiny query is… does she want 1300/1400m now? Can win!
3. 6 – TONYBOY – Shared the speed up the straight and did well given he had no cover and Churchill Dancer had the last shot… Softer run here and 1kg swing says he is in this.
4. 3 – CARILLO – Good maiden win with blinkers added at start two and time was good relative to older horses that day… How much upside is the key.
5. 2 – BOER – 1st-start. Showed ability at the trials back in December and stable’s 2yos are flying!

1. 3 – AWESOME BRO – Resumes. Excellent trial win running over them untouched. He was the best run in the race when .6L 3rd to Epaulette… That’s the horse that just split Black Caviar and Bel Sprinter! Wow!!
2. 1 – FLAMBERGE – Well backed, shared speed and was too strong for Lankan Rupee at Flemington. Meets him 1kg better now after claims too. 1100m no issue. Go well.
3. 9 – COOL GOD – Resumes. Been trialling well (unofficial trials/ I have a small share in him so yes, biased) but looks to have come on and wasn’t far off Limes and Co. in Listed grade and all-bar dead-heated with Hunger in $100k race at Sale so should run well… and is $26 !!
4. 2 – LANKAN RUPEE – They backed this guy almost as hard as Flamberge, he was just no match but good…and only 2nd-up so may have more upside this prep and that can offset the 1kg advantage to Flamberge.
5. 5 – GENTEEL – Solid return in same race as Flamberge etc. when maybe wasn’t in the best part of the track. Fitter. Liked her Flemington win over carnival… In OK weights.
6. 10 – IF I COULD – Is good enough but back to 1100m 2nd-up???

1. 6 – RUGGED CROSS – Sat wide at his Oz debut and ran over rivals anyway in top return especially given doubt seriously 1300m will be his ideal trip. Has run 3rd in Fairway Stks at 2400m at home. In well weights for 0-89 race for mine.
2. 2 – MOTIVADO – Resumes. Import having first Oz start here. Ran 4th (beaten 2L) in an Ebor Hcp so that is world class form. Will get further than 1800m but we know local trainers can ”inject speed” into these imports.
3. 4 – CLANGA’S GLORY – Runs 1600m right out and the miss at 1700m was no guide, first go 1800m here. Very sound Flemington latest in good race when back at 1400m. Winning hope… if runs trip.
4. 9 – ORIENTAL RUBY – Overraced MV/2040m latest. Won well here prior at 1700m ridden colder… There looks enough speed on paper for her to sit back here and run on.
5. 11 – HARRY TRIMBOLE – Bit wide/Ran well fresh and fitter/1800m helps. In below limit after claims gives him a hope here.

1. 11 – TIGERLAND – Looks smart. Won 4 of 5 and was an unlucky 2nd in the miss. Looks certain to measure up, the query I guess is the level of pressure in this race with four other potential leaders… ??
2. 4 – THE NEW BOY – All honours and well deserved win last time, and beat a smart one in Lake Sententia. Was 8-weeks off into that too. Pressure?
3. 13 – AASHIQ – Come up massive overs at $35. Slow out/Wide and forgive last run. The last time he had every chance he won 0-78 at this trip 3-back… Gate awkward but can slot in off all this speed.
4. 2 – NEW YORK – Colder ride (finally!) and good finale in The New Boy race latest. Was month off there too. Speed on paper here suits him. In well relative weights too.
5. 5 – SOLSAY – Burst through and looked home Cranbourne in good $50k race but was nailed by Avoinics. Some query at strong 1400m but chance here.
6. 7 – REPARATIONS – Wants 1400m and is next best…

1. 7 – HALLE ROCKS – Resumes. Unbeaten (3 from 3) fresh and last prep easily beat Vatican which reads excellent form. All four wins have been at 1000m. Don’t mind gate now race 7 here at the sprints (only one turn).
2. 9 – UMGETON – Just couldn’t hold off Delegance at Hillside but had 58kg and now meets her 4kg better. Won twice 2nd-up… last win near 2yrs ago now though…
3. 12 – DAY PROCEDURE – Is the weight horse here with 51kg. Drew gate 1 up straight and wrong spot/forgive that. Fast win 3-back and 2nd to Shamexpress 4-back reads terrific… Can win.
4. 6 – QUEEN DELIGHT – Absorbed a stack of pressure fresh and ran well. Her Obsidian Dragon form ties in here.
5. 13 – RIFLEMAN – May be some overs. At his last 1000m run he was 2nd and beat Delegance into 3rd and now meets her 2.5kg better.
6. 8 – DELEGANCE – Obviously a hope but risking as fave…

1. 13 – VIBRANT ROUGE – Resumes. Unbeaten (2 from 2) fresh and pitched in here 52kg (below limit) given her 1L 4th to There’s Only One (then beaten 3L in G1) and Loveyamadly from Bellmaine Stks in Feb. $5.50 will do!
2. 7 – EMBARK – Little freshen here. Won good form race fresh in late Feb then wasn’t far away in stakes grade to Arinosa who is flying! Danger.
3. 3 – HONEY FLOWER – Just couldn’t quicken at key stage at MV given her 58.5kg in a race where the quinella had 52kg and 51kg. Back to 1100m? Can win.
4. 10 – YOU CAN DANCE – Came wide and ran over them in decent $50k race at Cranbourne.. Even better suited 1100m over the 1000m there. Bit underrated.
5. 16 – QUICKSILVER LASS – Liked her to beat You Can Dance in that Cranbourne race but she had little luck at a key stage… Not dropping off.
6. 1 – SERENE STAR – Resumes. May go to W’bool but if here… Goes in…

1. 1 – TOYDINI – Exceptional 3YO in a hot year for same. Gave them all weight and spanked them in Carbine Stks and looks like he will eat 2000m… Meets rivals he thrashed better at the weights now!
2. 6 – LASER FLASH – Thought he was terrific in Tulloch Stks when wide no cover and forced to work, Philippi then beat all-bar freak It’s A Dundeel in a Derby. Gets softer run here!
3. 2 – HONORIUS – Hit the line when 4th to Toydini in Carbine Club and 2000m form includes a 3rd to It’s A Dundeel and an unlucky 2nd to Hvasstan… Weights against him turning tables on Toydini though.
4. 5 – ROWIE – Bit wide himself in Tulloch Stks and stuck to the task. Didn’t beat Laser Flash though… and doubt can again.

1. 5 – SILK PINS – Good roughie at $21. Nice trial before closing well Canterbury despite racing in restricted room. Sits off good speed here for C.Williams and is G1 placed remember…
2. 3 – MEIDUNG – Just Ok fresh then good in Darby Munro when closed with 11.80 last 200m (race fastest) despite being tightened up late. Back out to 1400m… Had her on top originally when came up $9.50 but that has been well and truly taken… Into right odds now… $4.4
3. 2 – CATKINS – Well rated/ridden and won PJ Bell Stks with Brave Soul 3rd (who beat Meidung home prior). First go 1400m but looks ok. Can win.
4. 6 – GULLIBLE – Trialled with Silk Pins and they both went well, she was then very well backed in PJ Bell but trapped wide there. Also first go 1400m…also looks ok.
5. 1 – DREIFONTEIN – Sharply back in trip but Gai trains so… Beaten 1.8L in a Coolmore reads very well for this… The gap between wins is the concern.

1. 3 – SKYERUSH – Loves Randwick and has excellent 1600m stats, in fact, at 1600m she is: 9:3-1-2 with 2 x G1 4ths (in Myer Classic’s). Dodged a Doncaster to run here and weighted to win (eg. beat Raspberries and meets her 3kg better).
2. 1 – SAY NO MORE – Just OK fresh but much, much better suited at 1600m, and on drier ground. Beat Xanadu giving her 2.5kg at home in G1.
3. 6 – FLORIA – Resumes. First Oz start and P.Moody trains. Comes up big odds at $26 given she trialled quite well and wasn’t far off Say No More when they clashed in NZ.
4. 2 – XANADU – Been top-4 in 13 of 16. Boasts placings to Ocean Park and King Mufhasa. Good miler. Include.
5. 5 – SHANNARA – Can improve here at big odds. Has had little luck both runs back!

1. 9 – IT’S A DUNDEEL – Blinkers on and three G1 wins,,, Aggregate margin 13.3Lengths. Back to 2000m and takes on older horses but doubt any of these 3yo’s are scared by these older horses!
2. 2 – RELIABLE MAN – Looked ‘big’ in the yard fresh yet still warmed up very nicely late. He was within 2/100ths of a second of Pierro’s last 200m split. Much fitter and much better suited 2000m. His Danedream/ So You Think form is world class form!!
3. 6 – SILENT ACHIEVER – Launched late and just missed Fiveandahalfstar in BMW.. Of course, that guy beat It’s A Dundeel in a VCR Derby so…there is a case made.
4. 1 – MANIGHAR – Hit line hard in Ryder – run was about as good as Reliable Man’s… Tipping that guy has a stack of improvement in him though…

1. 3 – FAST ‘N’ ROCKING – Forced very wide in Slipper and ran home well, his 12.04 last 200m was the race fastest and he went every bit as well as subsequent Sires winner Guelph (home 12.28). Has looked 1400/1600m horse for ages now!
2. 2 – CRITERION – Missed kick and finished just off Fast N Rocking in Slipper (home 12.18).. Beat Fast N Rocking prior. Jumps to 1600m.
3. 11 – GUELPH – Relished 1400m in Sires (off good 4th in Slipper) and went wide/powered home to beat hot pot Overreach and Co. Mile looks no issue. Obviously can win.
4. 9 – DRAGO – Ran well at big odds 2nd go given slow start and was only 4L off Guelph. Yes 1600m. Has more upside than above three here.
5. 12 – SCANDIVA – Rock solid in Sires splitting Guelph and Overreach. The 1600m is some tiny query I guess but must have a case too.

1. 4 – KELINNI – Thought he was a risk with 60kg back in trip last week… Wrong!! Last 3200m run he was 4th in a Melbourne Cup.
2. 5 – MALUCKYDAY – Kept closing in BMW and we know he will be strong at 3200m. Forgive Melb cup flop when well beaten by Kelinni. Long time between wins is testing us…
3. 3 – JULIENAS – Went like a busted last time… Previous form was excellent. Two second to Kelinni last prep is an obvious reference.
4. 8 – TREMEC – Had the run and tough win in Chairman’s. Looks a genuine stayer and in the mix.
5. 9 – ALIYANA TILDE – Sound but couldn’t peg back Tremec in the lead-up but was 1900-to-2600m and also should stay.
6. 6 – BLOOD BROTHA – A hope on same reference…

1. 7 – ALL TOO HARD – Two dominant wins this prep, at the end of last prep he ran down Pierro then beat all-bar one in a Cox Plate… And thrashed 3rd too (Pierro). He will do me.
2. 6 – MORE JOYOUS – Top 2nd to star Pierro fresh then luckless and clearly should have won last time. Danger.
3. 3 – RAIN AFFAIR – Set a fearsome speed and held on for 4th to Black Caviar last time. Might be back to best. At his last 1400m run he made Atlantic Jewel really work to beat him!
4. 8 – EPAULETTE – Nice trial then lovely return splitting Black Caviar and Bel Sprinter. Was 2.2L off All Too Hard (Pierro 2nd) in Caulfield Guineas rememeber…

1. 15 – SOFT SAND – Back/Wide forgive fresh run. Was running on well when ran out of room late 2nd-up and wasn’t far off 2nd (Arinosa won easy). Looks good speed on paper for her to rocket home and good roughie $18.
2. 4 – DECISION TIME – Even run in hot TJ Smith at WFA. 3rd to Bel Sprinter/ Snitzerland prior in sizzling time reads well for SWP race. Ready to win again!
3. 11 – SEE THE WORLD – Stayed inside (doubt best ground) and big win prior from 3L last. Cool S.Arnold rides off this hot speed…
4. 13 – SOMEPIN ANYPIN – Resumes. Was ridden but good tough trial win. Last fresh run was 1.6L 3rd to G1 winner Moment Of Change.
5. 12 – BOLD GLANCE – Resumes. Good trial in good heat. Won 3 x races fresh. Chance/Overs?
6. 1 – FAT AL – Resumes. Sound trial. Brave 2nd fresh last prep. 59.5kg?