ZRacingForm

Jun

2013

Ozracingform.com – G1 email – 15/6/13

Author: Gator

Produced by: http://www.ozracingform.com
Email/ Feedback: gators@ozracingform.com

PLEASE NOTE:
All ratings for MOONEE VALLEY are for SLOW/ HEAVY track. Rail is TRUE which means run-ons, off the inside, will likely get their chance here. In Sydney we are at ROSEHILL. Ratings are for SLOW track. Rail is 6m. Expecting winners to be away from the inside lanes here too.

BET OF THE DAY (Melb)
MOONEE VALLEY – Race 2 No.2 – MR MAKE BELIEVE – Opened $8 fresh, was backed $5.5-to-$4.4 on the day, and was far too good with .5kg over limit. If anything, 1200m suits better, if anything wet ground suits better. Meets Sea Lord 5kg better for their Spring clash.

BET OF THE DAY (Syd)
ROSEHILL – Race 8 No.6 – DESTINY’S KISS – Just didn’t quicken in time (was behind a wall) then launched late last week and they spaced 3rd. Has backed-up and ran very well in past. Love his 2000m form around Midnight Martini for this and bet he sits right up on speed at this trip. Don’t drop off !!

BEST VALUE BET OF THE DAY
MOONEE VALLEY – Race 7 No.1 – MR O’CEIRIN – Hit the line sweetly fresh (home 11.82 was race fastest) when close-up 6th, 7th was Swan Hill Cup winner Under The Eiffel. Last 2nd-up run he split Folding Gear (then good in Caulfield Cup) and Exceptionally in Naturalism Stks. Big weight but fancy is too good for them! No big odds but do think we are shopping 1-2 points overs at $4.5

BEST EACH-WAY BET OF THE DAY
ROSEHILL – Race 4 No.5 – CRADLE ME – Doubt was suited back to 1300m last time and she didn’t ping but was strong late, in fact she had clearly the fastest last 200m split there, back out to 1400m now!

BEST ROUGHIE OF THE DAY
MOONEE VALLEY – Race 4 No.2 – ROCK PRINCESS – Liked her midweek but she just went way too far back in on-pace race. Her 1.9L 6th this track/trip in a Stocks Stks (at WFA) is great form for this. Loves wet. Suspect you will see $10 around the traps and looks the value.

Lay Of The Day:
MOONEE VALLEY – Race 3 No.2 - TRUFFLE – Bit harder at weights here and come up fave so can risk…

TOP-RATED RUNNERS:

MOONEE VALLEY

Race 1 – 2YO Hcp – 1200m

4 – BOER – Was very new on debut but closed well late then had little luck key stage on wet at Lakeside when well fancied, winner (debutante for M.Kent) might be smart too. Tough start this though.
3 – PRINCE HARADA – Was $1.8-to-$1.75 on debut and sprinted quick for top win. Runner-up was then beaten 3L at Flemington Saturday so on that line alone who should measure right up. Was spruiked post-race by trainer.
6 – OUR MISS BOSSY – Nailed on line on debut then turned tables on Double Pockets on wet at start two and went through the ground very well, big tick as expecting this track to be genuinely wet.
2 – I’M READY FOR THIS – Backed $3-to-$2.7 on debut and raced away to win by 5L thrashing Our Casanova who then ran 3rd to Countersnip at Wodonga. Wet?
5 – THE QUARTERBACK – 1st-start. Smart trial winner running down the leader and they got right away from 3rd. Half to the very talented Philippi. Tough start!

Race 2 – Hcp – 1200m

2 – MR MAKE BELIEVE – Opened $8 fresh, was backed $5.5-to-$4.4 on the day, and was far too good with .5kg over limit. If anything, 1200m suits better, if anything wet ground suits better. Meets Sea Lord 5kg better for their Spring clash.
1 – SEA LORD – Resumes. Good 2nd to Undeniably in Xmas Stks fresh last prep giving him 2kg. Unbeaten (4 from 4) here. Has placed on heavy as a youngster. Relative weights against but super, super genuine and a danger.
7 – TACKLEBERRY – Absorbed pressure and kicked strong here last time but was nailed late by a good filly in Hai Lil and had near 60kg! Big weight relief. Handles wet but is probably a length better dry.
3 – ZEDI KNIGHT – Didn’t have much luck behind Mr Make Believe (meets 2kg better) then wide/forgive Swan Hill in $100k race. Wet ok. Has a case.
6 – DEE BEE NINE – Led and faded in that Gold Topaz at Swan Hill but Pago Rock form prior reads well. Likes Slow ground but if very heavy I’d be nervous…

Race 3 – 3YOF Hcp – 1200m

6 – NADEEM LASS – Good return on heavy when 2nd to Truffle (meets 3.5kg better) who then won again. Last 2nd-up run she was a food 2nd to Summer Gem and meets her 2.5kg better today, and has had the one run back.
3 – SUMMER GEM – Resumes. Trial was OK without raving 27/5. Knuckled down well and ran over Nadeem Lass fresh-up last prep then beat Octavia 2nd-up. Loves wet.
9 – NELLA FANTASIA – Good return at 1000m/Geelong when ran home hard in slick time. 1200m suits better. Was 1.75L off Octavia 3rd-up last prep (gap to 3rd) then 2nd to Hazard. Wet no issue.
1 – BLOOMINGDALE MISS – Poleaxed last week, forget. Wasn’t bad Flem/1200m prior when 2nd-up. This 1200m will suit better (MV not Flem’ton). Has won 1400m and likes wet. Claim useful.
2 – TRUFFLE – Flying and loves wet ground. Knuckled down well to score here last time. Weights make things tougher but a must include also.

Race 4 – F&M BM89 – 1600m

2 – ROCK PRINCESS – Liked her midweek but she just went way too far back in on-pace race. Her 1.9L 6th this track/trip in a Stocks Stks (at WFA) is great form for this. Loves wet. Suspect you will see $10 around the traps and looks the value.
4 – MOREAU – Led/Won handy maiden before straight to 3yoF $100k race at Caulfield and won again (pattern did help). Is G2 placed here at 1600m from Spring. She looks the leader again here but there are queries: Rail True and first go wet.
1 – ROCCIN JO – Good MV mare and good miler. Has 3 x wins this track/trip. Claims won 2kg above limit. Draws out but slots in 4th on my ”map” and wet ok. danger.
3 – ALIBERANI – Swimmer! Won 4 from 4 on heavy now and did beat top-pick Rock Princess in that midweek race. Go well if stable backs-up.
6 – SPIN THE BOTTLE – Had little luck fresh at Donald. Quicly to 1600m but is 1 from 1 2nd-up and 1 from 1 heavy (that was a 5L win!!). Chance too.

Race 5 – 3YO Hcp – 1500m

7 – OSSENHAGEN – Gave track record a scare at Geelong fresh then went to 0-68/1400m and thrashed a handy field at Bendigo, again he ran time, some 1.26 seconds quicker than older horses in previous race. First go wet the unknown.
4 – AVA’S DELIGHT – Was real keen last week and reckon she should have won it (slow out/ found traffic) and 1500m suits better. Likes wet and, yep, still rating that win over Super Cool at 1600m!!
1 – HUNGER – Was month off into last run here, kicked away but was nutted by Digitalism with Medvedev (coming off 2nd to Desert Wizard) in 3rd. Back to 1500m no major issue. Claim is clever.
2 – UNDERESTIMATION – Sitting shot up on hot speed in that Desert Wizard race Flem’ton then did a power of work here in the Hunger race and faded. To 1500m a plus and gets softer run. Improver at odds.
5 – BATMAN – No match for Ossenhagen at Bendigo but beat all the others and they ran some 8L faster than older horses that day. Wet no issue. In the mix.

Race 6 – Hcp – 1500m

6 – DEL PALIO – The 1000m was too sharp fresh. Onto wet out to 1424m at Sale and won $40k Open Hcp impressively. Good 3rd to Felidea in March ties in well and 4.5kg weight advantage is significant. Value hope $8-ish.
5 – FELIDEA – Went forward against his, and the raceday pattern last week and sat wide, forgive! In fact, to hold on and be beaten 3.95L was a good effort. Was 5-weeks between runs too. Never seen wet.
10 – DIGITALISM – Handy 3yo who chased Hunger well to win here with Medvedev 3rd, that’s handy off-season 3yo form. Wet no issue but wonder if back to 1500m could hurt and is skinny at $2.5…Hmmm.
3 – SPACECRAFT – Jumped in trip 2nd-up and went too far back. Fitter/1500m/Onto track he loves, with no weight, he’ll run well but last win many moons ago…
1 – SEA GALLEON – Resumes. Has won twice fresh and 1500m can suit if ready. Claim/Wet pluses.

Race 7 – Hcp – 2040m

1 – MR O’CEIRIN – Hit the line sweetly fresh (home 11.82 was race fastest) when close-up 6th, 7th was Swan Hill Cup winner Under The Eiffel. Last 2nd-up run he split Folding Gear (then good in Caulfield Cup) and Exceptionally in Naturalism Stks. Big weight but fancy is too good for them!
5 – DE FINE LAGO – Good 2nd to smart Lake Sententia this track/trip latest when 3rd-up off long (96-weeks) break says he is just about ready to win again. He has the class, he was 3rd to Tullamore and Glass Harmonium in a Bris Cup remember!
9 – SMARTY MAC – Out to middle-distance his last two and won them both, 2nd last time was Micken who then gave Fulgur a scare at Flemington last week. Has a case.
7 – WESTSOUTHWEST – Can really mix his form but nice finale last week and backs-up out to 2040m and proven wet so in wider bets.
6 – SECESSIO – Has claims on he De Fine Lago formline also but not sure can turn tables on him…??

Race 8 – Mares Hcp – 1200m

11 – JOHANNAPINE – Wasn’t far away against handy males fresh then held-up/charged here and looked stiff. Last 3rd-up run she was nailed by Serene Star and gave her 4.5kg that day. Wide gate a plus now? Go well.
8 – DRAW FORWARD – Had track bias against fresh then sound in good race last time. Can peak now and her MV form is good… in good races too.
2 – ROYAL BENDER – Good ride/win Caulfield beating Serene Star into 3rd. Her last wet track run she was photo 2nd to now multi G1 winner Platelet at WFA. She can certainly win this!!
1 – CLASSY CHLOE – Had little luck at Swan Hill. Had pressure and split Royal Bender/ Serene Star prior (leader bias though) but never seen wet.
3 – CAPITAL COMMANDER – Reusmes. Won 3 x races fresh and has claims
4 – QUEEN DELIGHT – Top win last time but now for 1200m???

ROSEHILL

Race 1 – 2YO SWP – 1500m

7 – ESTONIAN PRINCESS – Had no weight but did a great job to go down in photo here latest when wide all the way, had wide run prior at Scone too in $140k race, looks suited 1500m. Happy to back her.
1 – AMOVATIO Beat Brilliant Terror on debut before running 5th to he (and Estonian Princess) here on wet but doubt was in teh A-ground and 3kg swing on Estonian will help.
9 – AMALIEHAVEN – Hit line sweetly on debut then again closed well 2nd to and that Flying Sebring form has been franked. Yes 1500m. In this.
3 – KOROIBETE – Sent out huge odds on debut but made up plenty of ground behind a couple of above-average 2yo’s. Better for that!
2 – RYKER – Some hope but happy to lay if wet…

Race 2 – 3YO BM77 – 1200m

2 – RELAXED AND HAPPY – Went hard and was driven mad up front last time off a slashing return run and had poor recovery too so hapy to forgive and forget. Thtashed Group winner Happy Galaxy on wet last year. Nash replaces apprentice.
9 – TURBULENT JET – Has a stack of talent and upside this boy, big finale fresh then to city NMW race and produced another ripper finish to win again. Gets plenty of weight off Relaxed And Happy… Bet he measures up!
4 – KNOYDART – Sat off the fast pace and ran home nicely here latest in same race as many, wonder if he wants 1400m now, that’s only tiny query, but winning hope.
3 – EMBLEMS – Of course, he won that same race and was only 2nd-up and on wet for the first time so no knock…
10 – RED DYNAMITE – Drove leader mad last time and had to fade, forgive him also, chance.

Race 3 – 3YO BM76 – 1500m

7 – DARCIWOOD – Broke track record at Geelong on debut then good 3rd to Emblems/ Knoydart and that form will have been tested by now. To 1500m and in 52kg (below limit) after claims. Go well.
3 – HUNTER JACK – Has a good finish on him, got very close in the end last time off strong finale/win prior on wet and do think 1500m is what he wants.
1 – MIGHTY LUCKY – Just missed here last time and 3rd was Index Linked who was short (and coming off explosive win). Back to own age here but jumps to 59kg. One wet run was Ok in Gosford Guineas.
9 – MASAHIKO – 3rd to Turbulent Jet (ran previous) before stuck on well last week. Split Albrecht and Your Song on wet one day!
2 – GULLIBLE – Forgive last run in inferior ground but has to be some query at 1500m and looks some unders…

Race 4 – F&M BM82 – 1400m

5 – CRADLE ME – Doubt was suited back to 1300m last time and she didn’t ping but was strong late, in fact she had clearly the fastest last 200m split there, back out to 1400m now!
16 – HOUSTON BENEFACTOR – Might be ready to fire 3rd-up after finding line nicely 2nd-up and boasts a good 3rd to She’s Clean and today’s rival Berrimilla at 1400m… Overs??
8 – BERRIMILLA – Well backed ($9-to-$5) fresh and closed ok in leader dominated race. Fitter. Has won 2 of 3 second-up and as mantioned formlines tie in…
3 – FORARAINYDAY – Finally gets the blinkers on here and that may mean sits closer! Got bit lost last time and made up plenty of ground, that form stood up (Coup Ay Tee / Under The Sun etc.)
1 – COMBAT KITTY – Desperate for 1400m and bet they sit close ron her here too. No issue wet. Improver.
14 – MISS READY – Obviously has a case too.

Race 5 – Hcp – 1400m

6 – SAID COM – Heavily backed last time (bookies went up $10 – jumped $3.4) but just gave too big a start, he made up a stack of ground, the extra 50m to 1400m here will help. Bowman up won’t hurt! D-day?
5 – NOCTURNELLE – Could have trialled better but the fresh run was good when ran home nicely for 2nd beating home Said Com. She has 2nd-up form and likes wet. Been in quinella 5 of 6 here and was luckless in the miss.
1 – KONTIKI PARK – Resumes. Good trial when sprinted quick (was ridden) and last fresh run was a win, here, at 1400m with 58.5kg beating Said Com into 3rd. Flies for Nash!
2 – BOLD GLANCE – Trialled well before fresh run when sat handy but faded. Wasn’t far off Fontelina and Co. in good race at Scone 2nd-up. 3rd-up to 1400m and maps well. In the game.
7 – ZARATONE – Had pressure/forgive last week. Looks solo leader here and can give a huge sight… First go 1400m the obvious (big) query but have seen many pressured and fail at 1200m then get softer lead/tempo and led all the way at this trip.

Race 6 – BM85 – 1100m

10 – GOLDEN SUNSHINE – Resumes. Led/Won untouched in smart trial win. Beat older/males fresh last prep then held off all-bar Catkins in Fireball. Hard to beat.
9 – SESSIONS – Resumes. Trialled super also when ran home hard under no riding (gap 3rd) and is unbeaten fresh, in the latest he led and held on to beat… wait for it… Catkins so little between these two on that line.
8 – VELROSSO – Resumes. Sat back/Went wide and ran on under no riding, he was good also! Big fresh win from tail last prep then beat now G1 placed Aeronautical. Pick of the older horses for mine.
11 – AGENT – Drew bad but weaved through for top win against the pattern at Scone. That Fireball form stacked up very well last week! Never seen wet.
6 – GASQUET – Good risk in pressure race for mine last time. She’s Clean franked that form again. 3rd-up here on wet but again, there looks real pressure on paper.
4 – HURRARA – Also has a case but may ned to take sit…

Race 7 – BM85 – 1350m

4 – FIREBALL – Heavily backed here last time and sat wide no cover then couldn’t hold off Disciple. Onto wetter will not hurt. The 1350m will suit too. Go well.
1 – DSICIPLE – Top return win then stayed at 1200m 2nd-up yet wound-up super and ran over Fireball anyway. If anything, 1350m suits better, claim a help and handles Slow ground but any wetter may be a query.. Gate? Pattern?
12 – SASTRUGA – Didn’t have quite enough galloping room for mine fresh and was good. That Oakfields Command form has been stamped too. Unbeaten (2 from 2) 2nd-up and proven Slow (no worse). In this.
10 – INFINITE ENERGY – Just got lost last time, inclined to forgive. Better suited 1350m anyway. His British General form at 1400m in Melb I like for this class of race… In everything.
3 – EARNEST ERNEST – Nice finish in Disciple race latest with 58kg. No wins beyond 1200m but has placed twice at 1400m and handles wet well.
7 – PERON – Won 5 of 6 and was a good 3rd after missing the kick in slowly run race in the miss. Not sure well weighted 56kg against older males is all…

Race 8 – Kensei Hcp – 2000m

6 – DESTINY’S KISS – Just didn’t quicken in time (was behind a wall) then launched late last week and they spaced 3rd. Has backed-up and ran very well in past. Love his 2000m form around Midnight Martini for this and bet he sits right up on speed at this trip. Don’t drop off !!
3 – ILLO – Really found the wire here last time and 2000m ideal now. Has run Ok at WFA at 2000m and won at 2400m. danger.
2 – CANTONESE – Getting closer it seems. Stuck to task very well when .7L off Illo last time, 3rd-up, and his 2000m form is terrific.
1 – FIREBOLT – Liked him last time but was set fair task coming wide (no trial) from long way out. Weights make it hard but Bowman to offset that? Has run well at 2000m without winning.
10 – YULALONA – Even effort last time 2nd-up and fitter/2000m says has a case.
4 – MERLIN MUSTANG – If runs 2000m has good case too…

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May

2013

Ozracingform.com – G1 email 25-5-13

Author: Gator

Produced by: http://www.ozracingform.com
Email/ Feedback: gators@ozracingform.com

PLEASE NOTE:
All ratings for CAULFIELD are for DEAD track. Rail comes back to 3m (after being way out at 14m last time and on-pacer’s fared well). With rain about I’d doubt any mad on-pace pattern will eventuate but watch/monitor. In Sydney we are back at ROYAL RANDWICK and ratings are for HEAVY track. Rail is TRUE. Plenty of rain about still, as I type…

BET OF THE DAY (Melb)
CAULFIELD – Race 9 No.5 – STRAWBERRY BOY – Excellent return win sitting outside the lead on a strong 47.5 1st-800m and surged clear running fast overall time 1:21.8. Remains unbeaten (5 from 5) in races below 2000m. Streets Away from the race won last week. One to beat.

BET OF THE DAY (Syd)
RANDWICK – Race 3 No.6 – PRINCE JESTER – Won like a horse going places in Sandown last time against the older horses and seems to handle wet well. Suited 2000m and strikes a race where key rivals come through questionable form-race. Gate means better odds?

BEST VALUE BET OF THE DAY
CAULFIELD – Race 6 No.3 – MR MAKE BELIEVE – Resumes. In .5kg over limit and last fresh run he split Golden Archer and now multiple G1 winner Platelet. Jar out of track ideal. Very well placed but concede luck (pattern?) from gate 1 at 1000m is important. Surprised is $8.

BEST EACH-WAY BET OF THE DAY
RANDWICK – Race 6 No.9 – DEE’N'GEE – Resumes. Good trial win. Had little hope Caulfield fresh last prep in slowly run race won by Golden Archer in fast time. Had excuses most of last prep in some decent races too. Has won on heavy. Keen runs well.

BEST ROUGHIE OF THE DAY
RANDWICK – Race 5 No.6 – ZAUBERFLOTE – Found the 1200m too sharp fresh (dídn’t quicken but ran on nicely late & through line). Her one run beyond sprint trip was probably her best when home hard against the pattern Rosehill in Nov. wet?? $13 worth a play??

Lay Of The Day:
RANDWICK – Race 6 No.12 – GASQUET - Good wetty but up a notch here and suprised is fave… Goes in quad but betting around.

TOP-RATED RUNNERS:

CAULFIELD

Race 1 – 0-62 – 2000m

7 – PRISONER OF WAR – Wasn’t bad in Chairman’s Stks in Adelaide last time and had sound late sectionals here prior in $100k open 3YO. Back to 0-62 here with 57kg. Concede needs luck from gate but certainly overs for mine at $12 early.
15 – TRIQUETRA – Looked in trouble Seymour latest but came again late, no surprise the blinkers go on here. Gets good run. Month between runs with 58 for filly some query but danger.
9 – SPENEPI – Didn’t fire Flemington latest but may have had some issues there (rider concerned with action). He was luckless M’ton prior. The Kyneton runin this class was quite good. Overs too?
18 – STAR ROLLING – Stepped to the mile at start two with blinkers added, sat wide and walked in, looked there like he could go on!
17 – BRIDIE O’REILLY – Also comes off dominant maiden win and has real upside… Not sure could back as fave but in the mix.

Race 2 – 2YO Hcp – 1600m

1 – EAGLE ISLAND – Loved the finale to get up score on debut in Adelaide and beat a few who had form around Long John here which should be ok. Nicely related Colt who can progress.
2 – POLANSKI – Given gun ride to roll the heavily backed Gracious Spirit here and they beat 3rd easily. Step to mile, if anything, suits better? Big threat.
5 – CELERITAS – The 1000m was to sharp fresh in good form race then sound at M’ton. Good ride/win latest. To 1600m looks a plus. On the up.
4 – THROW THE KING – Wasn’t bad behind Polanski but needs to find near 7L… Was having just start two and jumped in trip so fancy there is room to improve lengths…

Race 3 – BM95 – 2380m

3 – DEVISED – Out-bobbed by Scream Machine in $144k Wagga Cup and that winner would be short here. Terrific win prior off wide run. Claims down 53kg. First try trip the unknown but happy to spec at the $8.
4 – SHINY BUTTONS – Couldn’t hold off promising Motivado in Queens Cup in Adelaide but held 3rd (Finiguerra) clearly and was luckless/good behind Banca Mo prior. Proven can stay so probably the safest way to go.
2 – VERDANT – Went much, much better ridden colder last time when split Whisper Downs and Auld Burns. Better suited 2380m than 2000m too. Can win.
1 – FINIGUERRA – Solid in Queens Cup and 1kg pull on Shiny Buttons a help. Had track pattern against when failed W’bool Cup prior. Each-way.
5 – COUP ACCLAIM – Much better last time back onto drier and has placed in town in Sydney at 2400m. In the mix too.

Race 4 – 3YO Hcp – 1400m

6 – AVA’S DELIGHT – Pleasing return then good finish in strong off-season race 2nd-up after bad start. Beat Super Cool last prep which is outstanding form obviously. In form rider up but… can she jump with the field??
4 – PRIMITIVE MAN – Huge finale/win here last time when fresh-up into just second prep. Not many stormed home from the back that day either. Yes 1400m. Go well.
2 – SCAPOLO – Did walk in fresh in NZ on heavy. No issues drier ground and you could argue he should be unbeaten in three Oz starts. Gate awkward.
8 – KING KROVANH – Resumes. Yet to miss a place. Green but good maiden winner fresh last prep then placed to handy Lampedusa before win here over Digitalism and Cooldini (won by 12L midweek).
15 – OSSENHAGEN – Smart win at start three and ran fast time… Stable come straight to town which is a good sign. Chance.
5 – QUICK SNITZEL – Resumes. Has claims too.

Race 5 – 3YO Hcp – 1100m

7 – EDGEWOOD – Resumes. Gelded. Two excellent trial wins but missed the start in both (as he keeps doing raceday). His run in Sandown Guineas was as good as anything in that race and in it was Tatra, Lunar Rise etc etc. Can he jump? Is 1100m too sharp?
1 – ELITE ELLE – Led in very, very slow 37+ second 1st-600m latest but beat two good class older mares and back to own age here, claim to 57kg very important taking on males. Jar out of track ideal. The obvious.
8 – SPENDING – Resumes. Won Flemington 0-72 race on debut and ran 56.6 for the 1000m beating subsequent stakes winner Agulhas and city winner Octavia then had excuses next two. How good? She is the best value runner here at $11 for mine!
3 – SO WOTIF – First Oz start. Only top-3 miss was on debut. Is G3 winner at home and form through Saturn Rock reads well.
9 – SHE CAN SKATE – Resumes. Good debut win (gap 3rd) then split Miss Softsand (smart) and Octavia (ties in well with Spending!) and in the game here too…

Race 6 – Hcp – 1000m

3 – MR MAKE BELIEVE – Resumes. In .5kg over limit and last fresh run he split Golden Archer and now multiple G1 winner Platelet. Jar out of track ideal. Very well placed but concede luck (pattern?) from gate 1 at 1000m is important.
11 – UMGETON – Good ride/win here latest in race first three got away from the rest. Her 1000m form is very good. Match fit danger.
2 – ZEDI KNIGHT – Wasn’t far away in Goodwood last time. Looked bit stiff prior behind Vatican here… Hasn’t been at 1000m for a fair while so that is some query.
6 – BASIL DA MAN – Resumes. Won 4 of 6 fresh and in one of those misses he was wide on the speed, and ran 4th. Love the 1000m record. Goes in.
7 – SHADOWFAX – Resumes. Good fresh run when 2.6L off Sea Lord last prep despite working wide in the run. Another not sure 1000m but can go in.

Race 7 – Mares Hcp – 1200m

7 – VIBRANT ROUGE – Tragedy beaten fresh then unlucky again last time when clear too late and leader crawled through 37-sec 1st-600m. Senior rider (finally) takes over (and D.Dunn in great form) but draws out… Check pattern now, is rail a bit ”off”’???
1 – SERENE STAR – Top return win 60kg (albeit Vibrant Rouge unlucky) then could not reel in Elite Elle who got away with murder up front on leaders’ track. Has weight advantage on Vibrant Rouge and draws better than her. Go close.
8 – YOU CAN DANCE – May not have been in the A-ground when beaten by top-2 mentioned here then OK in Adelaide in deep race. Serene Star has 3kg advantage on her but she is in the game.
4 – CLASSY CHLOE – Did work hard early in Adelaide latest and had to wilt. Trapped wide at WFA prior. She split Detours and G1 winner Mrs Onassis here last spring… The value runner $12??
10 – RIVIERE – Resumes. Gave all but then in-form Loveyamadly was too strong fresh last prep. Has been in quinella 4 of 5 fresh. Chance.

Race 8 – 3YOF Hcp – 1600m

4 – MAMA’S CHOICE – Flashed home in Laelia Stks out to the mile last time and now has 4kg swing on Keyama Blue which is significant. Did win here on debut. Has a 3rd to Commanding Jewel on track with give.
2 – KEYARNA BLUE – Blew the start in Laelia Stks yet was too good anyway! Very promising filly.. Just had to lean to Mama’s Choice with that 4kg pull is all… Little between them.
16 – USURPER – Covered ground Lakeside latest yet still ran home hard off forgive run fresh when jarred-up. Good 3rd to Bass Straight her 1 x 1600m run. In this!
11 – MOREAU – Stepped to 1400m and good breakthrough win at Sale in decent maiden on paper. Has been G2 placed at 1600m remember so is good enough to win.
13 – NAUTICAL – Worked home well here latest at first go 1600m but Benenden box-seated and was too strong. maiden but will win plenty of races.

Race 9 – Hcp – 1600m

5 – STRAWBERRY BOY – Excellent return win sitting outside the lead on a strong 47.5 1st-800m and surged clear running fast overall time 1:21.8. Remains unbeaten (5 from 5) in races below 2000m. Streets Away from the race won last week. One to beat.
8 – GOOD VALUE – Top return from last in same race running 11:73 last 200m (2 x 100ths faster than Streets Away) and has 1.5kg advantage on Strawberry Boy now. Goes well 2nd-up/Wants mile. Danger.
9 – OREGON SPIRIT – Ran home hard against the tempo/pattern here last time and winner there is flying Cosmic Causeway. Good miler. In this.
17 – UNDERESTIMATION – Was left sitting duck up on speed last week in swoopers’ race and went well. Close-up prior in good off-season 3YO race. Overs/Chance?
3 – PAKAL – Resumes. First Oz start. Solid trial win ridden out beating another import Bit Of Hell… Who is here… Hmmm.

RANDWICK

Race 1 – 2YO SWP – 1200m

2 – EVERAGE – Talented and tough filly unbeaten (3 from 3) on heavy tracks and did a great job with 58kg last time. Two of her three losses were too Overreach and Safeguard !
7 – BERNABEU – 1st-start. Fastnet Rock Gelding who trialled like a superstar on dry. Looks very gifted. If handles wet will run very well.
10 – RYKER – 1st-start. Trialled quite well (nowhere near as well as Bernabeu but was solid) and nice pedigree here.
4 – KNIGHT TEMPLER – Impressed and ran time on debut then good Vs older horses start two. Back to 2yo grade. Chance.
9 – MR MISSMURT – 1st-start. Also trialled quite well and betting a further guide.

Race 2 – 3YO BM77 – 1400m

6 – SECRET DELIGHT – Wish she went better last time but it was a Listed race and she did run well in that class prior, out of that race came Diamond Earth to win last week. Unbeaten wet.
4 – EIGHT STRAIGHT – Was backed fresh but had no luck, that was his first run as a gelding. Is Rosehill winner on heavy ground. Big threat.
8 – DESTINY RISING – Wide/Worked and bolted in city maiden fresh and boasts a 2nd to Ninth Legion at 1400m.
1 – OOMPA LOOMPA – Led and kept kicking to win handy BM80 last time and was 7-weeks off into it. Step to 1400m looks no issue, in fact, the tempo of same may help further.
5 – MISHANI PERSUADER – Handles wet and in light, in form and can place.

Race 3 – 3YO BM74 – 2000m

6 – PRINCE JESTER – Won like a horse going places in Sandown last time against the older horses and seems to handle wet well. Suited 2000m and strikes a race where key rivals come through questionable form-race. Gate means better odds?
17 – KIM DYNASTY – Got lost at Rosehill and made up a stack of ground when 1400m-to-1900m and may be the pick of those at odds coming through said questionable form-race…???
1 – SIR DENZEL – Battled a bit last time but was 4L 3rd to Philippi (then 2nd in derby) and Hippopus (then won St Leger) prior… That run goes close here.
18 – REMORSE – Did hit the line sweetly (late) at Rosehill and wants every bit of the extra 100m here. Proven to Slow ground.
4 – QUEENTOWN – Sat handy and gave his all last time and many of those horses are here so that may off-set the fact it was a slow finish/ race.
5 – RICHIE’S BICKIES – Won that ”slow finish” race and was tough/genuine doing it.

Race 4 – W J McKell Cup – 2400m

2 – VATUVEI – Doubt was suited back at 2000m latest and only wamed up late, quickly out to 2400m and onto wet, he is unbeaten (2 from 2) on heavy ground.
6 – STRIKE THE STARS – Swung wide whilst winner (Moriarty) saved ground latest and small field, wet, to 2400m… He did run 4th in ATC Derby at 2400m… Is today the day !?!?
4 – MOTIVADO – Big boy who won well in Queens Cup beating Shiny Buttons who had Banca Mo form. Would be clear top pick if proven wet but he last wet run at home he was beaten 99L.
1 – PERMIT – Stuck on OK in Mayor Cup and back out to best trip here… Handles wet but not sure about very wet…?

Race 5 – F&M BM80 – 1400m

6 – ZAUBERFLOTE – Found the 1200m too sharp fresh (dídn’t quicken but ran on nicely late & through line). Her one run beyond sprint trip was probably her best when home hard against the pattern Rosehill in Nov. wet?? $13 worth a play??
7 – GULLIBLE – Little luck key stage latest then cut back to inside lanes and definitely should have finished closer there. Worked hard/Faded at this trip prior so still not sure if she runs 1400m out… or if handles wet.
3 – CAPROSSA – Struggled in Wagga Town Plate. The fresh win in strong midweeker was good. Her one wet track run was a win.
4 – POTIONS – Sound return on very wet ground then didn’t fire Hawkesbury but that was a much deeper race. Might be safest each-way if it is real wet here…?
10 – ELFINA – Wasn’t bad latest behind Saturday class horse in Vic in Khalifa and 1400m on wet suits if ridden off speed… Reckon that’s key to her.

Race 6 – Hcp – 1100m

9 – DEE’N'GEE – Resumes. Good trial win. Had little hope Caulfield fresh last prep in slowly run race won by Golden Archer in fast time. Had excuses most of last prep in some decent races too. Has won on heavy. Keen runs well.
5 – SHE’S CLEAN – Resumes. Impressed fresh last prep in winning then beat Appearance (multiple G1 winner) before spelling. Handles heavy but beaten fave one dayon ”bottomless” track so… Check rating?
10 – HURRARA – Led off rail latest and neds it softer than that to win at 1200m as he just gets that trip. Back to 1100m here (won 5 at 1100m) and was a very good 3rd this trip 2-back when sat up on suicidal speed in strong form race. $8 overs?
12 – GASQUET – Led and beat a good mare in She’s A Stalker last time when fresh. Plummets in weight and has great 2nd-up record… and proven wet. It’s a strong case.
7 – EMOTIONAL CIRCUS – Has rocket finish on her and form around top-class mares. Last run up north good. Very wet ground her worry.

Race 7 – BM80 – 1200m

14 – ANEVAY – Trialled super before doing stack of work on speed fresh and faded but held 4th in a race where trifecta all swooped. Has won 2nd-up. Yet to see wet ground the query.
6 – FALZZON – Worked home well to 1200m 2nd-up when stayed on inside lanes. Draws way out but inside off? Proven wet. Good hope with luck.
8 – BRIAN’S HONOUR – Ran 11th fresh but went well aftter endured wide run and went early. Fitter. gets it softer and loves wet. Good roughie?
12 – EMINENT DOMAIN – Off back-to-back wins and little break between runs no issue for him. Last win from tail was on heavy. Gate??
19 – DECEIVER – Loomed fresh and ran well with pattern no help. The heavy track 4th before spell when luckless key stage says can win this.
5 – BAY WINDOW – Fresh. Next best but wide race…

Race 8 – BM95 – 1400m

18 – FORARAINYDAY – Didn’t quicken but sound late latest when found 1200m a bit sharp. Last 1400m run was 1L 3rd to Brightest when found line very well. Handled slow but yet to see heavy.
12 – RENEWED VITALITY – Gave him good hope at big odds last time but was wide no cover. Fitter? Boasts restrcited grade win over Somepin Anypin!! Unbeaten heavy too!!
11 – DESTINY’S KISS – Did work home nicely latest when 2nd-up and might be about ready to win again… Won 3 x races on heavy. In this.
4 – BALAVAN – Just missed Hidden Warrior latest and big tick here is getting onto wet ground. The last bit of 1400m some query but can win.
7 – COUP AY TEE – Pleasing return and 2nd to Aeronautical 2nd-up last prep reads well since he is now G1 placed. Yes wet.

Good luck !

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Apr

2013

Ozracingform.com – G1 email – Sydney Cup Day 2013

Author: Gator

Produced by: http://www.ozracingform.com
Email/Feedback: mailto:gators@ozracingform.com

PLEASE NOTE:
All ratings for CAULFIELD are for GOOD track. Rail comes out 10m from the 7m spot on April 12. The track was fair that day with no obvious pattern. Expecting the same here but wary (as always) if track becomes very firm, and leader-ish. In Sydney it is RANDWICK again. This time we are on a GOOD track. Rail comes back into 6m spot (was 3m last week on heavy ground) so there is plenty of damage/traffic on those inside lanes, I’d be shocked if we had a leader’s track!

BET OF THE DAY (Melb)
CAULFIELD – Race No.13 – VIBRANT ROUGE – Resumes. Unbeaten (2 from 2) fresh and pitched in here 52kg (below limit) given her 1L 4th to There’s Only One (then beaten 3L in G1) and Loveyamadly from Bellmaine Stks in Feb. $5.50 will do!

BET OF THE DAY (Syd)
RANDWICK – Race 3 No.3 – SKYERUSH – Loves Randwick and has excellent 1600m stats, in fact, at 1600m she is: 9:3-1-2 with 2 x G1 4ths (in Myer Classic’s). Dodged a Doncaster to run here and weighted to win (eg. beat Raspberries and meets her 3kg better).

BEST VALUE BET OF THE DAY
RANDWICK – Race 5 No.3 – FAST ‘N’ ROCKING – Forced very wide in Slipper and ran home well, his 12.04 last 200m was the race fastest and he went every bit as well as subsequent Sires winner Guelph (home 12.28). Has looked 1400/1600m horse for ages now! Come up overs for mine at $7.50

BEST EACH-WAY BET OF THE DAY
CAULFIELD – Race 2 No.10 – NAUTICAL – Should have won first two starts easily for mine, form around both those maidens is excellent. Really hit the wire at Flemington behind Coins and now has 4kg swing… and perhaps more upside… Doubt should be 6-points longer that’s for sure… $9!!

BEST ROUGHIE OF THE DAY
RANDWICK – Race 8 No.15 – SOFT SAND – Back/Wide forgive fresh run. Was running on well when ran out of room late 2nd-up and wasn’t far off 2nd (Arinosa won easy). Looks good speed on paper for her to rocket home and good roughie $18.

Lay OF The Day:
CAULFIELD – Race 7 No.8 – DELEGANCE - Obviously a hope but risking as fave…

TOP-RATED RUNENRS:

CAULFIELD

Race 1 – F&M BM89 – 2000m

3 – HIDDEN MESSAGE – Was 7-weeks between runs into Flemington/1400m latest and really hit the wire (her 11.84 last 200m was the race fastest) and quickly back out to her right distance range and gets gun run.
2 – BLUE RIBBON – Went back from awkward gate and got pulling off slow speed latest, thought she was the best run in the race to run 2nd to Friday Hussey whom she now meets 4kg better. Serious danger.
9 – AVERAU – This filly has the most upside of any in this race, really good win stepping to 2040m at Benalla sweeping to lead and winning running away… Looked city class there!
1 – FRIDAY HUSSEY – Come up big odds for a girl off back-toback wins… Concede weights make it tough but she will sit up on an even tempo (on paper) and is super genuine.
4 – FREEZY – Off back-to-back wins also, her record 2000/2100m is good. Bit more depth here and come up fave but chance.

Race 2 – 3YOF Hcp – 1400m

10 – NAUTICAL – Should have won first two starts easily for mine, form around both those maidens is excellent. Really hit the wire at Flemington behind Coins and now has 4kg swing… and perhaps more upside… Doubt should be 6-points longer that’s for sure… $9!!
3 – COINS – Good sectionals fresh then really impressed at Flemington off fast pace (ran fast time) when joined in quick and raced away! Jumps to 58.5kg but it may not be enough to stop her.
2 – BENENDEN – Was just OK fresh behind Elite Elle/ Red Fez which is strong off-season form. She won her maiden well 2nd-up last prep at 1400m, in fact, she is 3 from 4 at 1400m and was beaten 2.3L on Cup Day in a good race in the miss.
11 – SHERBERT BOMB – Easy maiden win then sound Hillside behind an underrated one. Back to 1400m? In the mix.
6 – EPHEMERA – Another who was just OK last time but may be looking for 1400m now and can improve. Shallow race.

Race 3 – 2YO Hcp – 1200m

1 – CHURCHILL DANCER – Well ridden and had the last shot at the leaders up straight at Flemington but won well and looks to be improving with every run. Up to 57kg but only meets Tonyboy 1kg worse… Leaning his way.
9 – THE HUNTRESS – Produced a very good finale to win on debut. Australia Day was back in 4th and that form reads well for this. Only tiny, tiny query is… does she want 1300/1400m now? Can win!
6 – TONYBOY – Shared the speed up the straight and did well given he had no cover and Churchill Dancer had the last shot… Softer run here and 1kg swing says he is in this.
3 – CARILLO – Good maiden win with blinkers added at start two and time was good relative to older horses that day… How much upside is the key.
2 – BOER – 1st-start. Showed ability at the trials back in December and stable’s 2yos are flying!

Race 4 – 3YO Hcp – 1100m

3 – AWESOME BRO – Resumes. Excellent trial win running over them untouched. He was the best run in the race when .6L 3rd to Epaulette… That’s the horse that just split Black Caviar and Bel Sprinter! Wow!!
1 – FLAMBERGE – Well backed, shared speed and was too strong for Lankan Rupee at Flemington. Meets him 1kg better now after claims too. 1100m no issue. Go well.
9 – COOL GOD – Resumes. Been trialling well (unofficial trials/ I have a small share in him so yes, biased) but looks to have come on and wasn’t far off Limes and Co. in Listed grade and all-bar dead-heated with Hunger in $100k race at Sale so should run well… and is $26 !!
2 – LANKAN RUPEE – They backed this guy almost as hard as Flamberge, he was just no match but good…and only 2nd-up so may have more upside this prep and that can offset the 1kg advantage to Flamberge.
5 – GENTEEL – Solid return in same race as Flamberge etc. when maybe wasn’t in the best part of the track. Fitter. Liked her Flemington win over carnival… In OK weights.
10 – IF I COULD – Is good enough but back to 1100m 2nd-up???

Race 5 – 0-89 Hcp – 1800m

6 – RUGGED CROSS – Sat wide at his Oz debut and ran over rivals anyway in top return especially given doubt seriously 1300m will be his ideal trip. Has run 3rd in Fairway Stks at 2400m at home. In well weights for 0-89 race for mine.
2 – MOTIVADO – Resumes. Import having first Oz start here. Ran 4th (beaten 2L) in an Ebor Hcp so that is world class form. Will get further than 1800m but we know local trainers can ”inject speed” into these imports.
4 – CLANGA’S GLORY – Runs 1600m right out and the miss at 1700m was no guide, first go 1800m here. Very sound Flemington latest in good race when back at 1400m. Winning hope… if runs trip.
9 – ORIENTAL RUBY – Overraced MV/2040m latest. Won well here prior at 1700m ridden colder… There looks enough speed on paper for her to sit back here and run on.
11 – HARRY TRIMBOLE – Bit wide/Ran well fresh and fitter/1800m helps. In below limit after claims gives him a hope here.

Race 6 – BM89 – 1400m

11 – TIGERLAND – Looks smart. Won 4 of 5 and was an unlucky 2nd in the miss. Looks certain to measure up, the query I guess is the level of pressure in this race with four other potential leaders… ??
4 – THE NEW BOY – All honours and well deserved win last time, and beat a smart one in Lake Sententia. Was 8-weeks off into that too. Pressure?
13 – AASHIQ – Come up massive overs at $35. Slow out/Wide and forgive last run. The last time he had every chance he won 0-78 at this trip 3-back… Gate awkward but can slot in off all this speed.
2 – NEW YORK – Colder ride (finally!) and good finale in The New Boy race latest. Was month off there too. Speed on paper here suits him. In well relative weights too.
5 – SOLSAY – Burst through and looked home Cranbourne in good $50k race but was nailed by Avoinics. Some query at strong 1400m but chance here.
7 – REPARATIONS – Wants 1400m and is next best…

Race 7 – BM89 – 1000m

7 – HALLE ROCKS – Resumes. Unbeaten (3 from 3) fresh and last prep easily beat Vatican which reads excellent form. All four wins have been at 1000m. Don’t mind gate now race 7 here at the sprints (only one turn).
9 – UMGETON – Just couldn’t hold off Delegance at Hillside but had 58kg and now meets her 4kg better. Won twice 2nd-up… last win near 2yrs ago now though…
12 – DAY PROCEDURE – Is the weight horse here with 51kg. Drew gate 1 up straight and wrong spot/forgive that. Fast win 3-back and 2nd to Shamexpress 4-back reads terrific… Can win.
6 – QUEEN DELIGHT – Absorbed a stack of pressure fresh and ran well. Her Obsidian Dragon form ties in here.
13 – RIFLEMAN – May be some overs. At his last 1000m run he was 2nd and beat Delegance into 3rd and now meets her 2.5kg better.
8 – DELEGANCE – Obviously a hope but risking as fave…

Race 8 – Mares Hcp – 1100m

13 – VIBRANT ROUGE – Resumes. Unbeaten (2 from 2) fresh and pitched in here 52kg (below limit) given her 1L 4th to There’s Only One (then beaten 3L in G1) and Loveyamadly from Bellmaine Stks in Feb. $5.50 will do!
7 – EMBARK – Little freshen here. Won good form race fresh in late Feb then wasn’t far away in stakes grade to Arinosa who is flying! Danger.
3 – HONEY FLOWER – Just couldn’t quicken at key stage at MV given her 58.5kg in a race where the quinella had 52kg and 51kg. Back to 1100m? Can win.
10 – YOU CAN DANCE – Came wide and ran over them in decent $50k race at Cranbourne.. Even better suited 1100m over the 1000m there. Bit underrated.
16 – QUICKSILVER LASS – Liked her to beat You Can Dance in that Cranbourne race but she had little luck at a key stage… Not dropping off.
1 – SERENE STAR – Resumes. May go to W’bool but if here… Goes in…

RANDWICK

Race 1 – Frank Packer Plate – 2000m

1 – TOYDINI – Exceptional 3YO in a hot year for same. Gave them all weight and spanked them in Carbine Stks and looks like he will eat 2000m… Meets rivals he thrashed better at the weights now!
6 – LASER FLASH – Thought he was terrific in Tulloch Stks when wide no cover and forced to work, Philippi then beat all-bar freak It’s A Dundeel in a Derby. Gets softer run here!
2 – HONORIUS – Hit the line when 4th to Toydini in Carbine Club and 2000m form includes a 3rd to It’s A Dundeel and an unlucky 2nd to Hvasstan… Weights against him turning tables on Toydini though.
5 – ROWIE – Bit wide himself in Tulloch Stks and stuck to the task. Didn’t beat Laser Flash though… and doubt can again.

Race 2 – James Carr Stks – 3YOF – 1400m

5 – SILK PINS – Good roughie at $21. Nice trial before closing well Canterbury despite racing in restricted room. Sits off good speed here for C.Williams and is G1 placed remember…
3 – MEIDUNG – Just Ok fresh then good in Darby Munro when closed with 11.80 last 200m (race fastest) despite being tightened up late. Back out to 1400m… Had her on top originally when came up $9.50 but that has been well and truly taken… Into right odds now… $4.4
2 – CATKINS – Well rated/ridden and won PJ Bell Stks with Brave Soul 3rd (who beat Meidung home prior). First go 1400m but looks ok. Can win.
6 – GULLIBLE – Trialled with Silk Pins and they both went well, she was then very well backed in PJ Bell but trapped wide there. Also first go 1400m…also looks ok.
1 – DREIFONTEIN – Sharply back in trip but Gai trains so… Beaten 1.8L in a Coolmore reads very well for this… The gap between wins is the concern.

Race 3 – Emancipation Stks – Mares – 1600m

3 – SKYERUSH – Loves Randwick and has excellent 1600m stats, in fact, at 1600m she is: 9:3-1-2 with 2 x G1 4ths (in Myer Classic’s). Dodged a Doncaster to run here and weighted to win (eg. beat Raspberries and meets her 3kg better).
1 – SAY NO MORE – Just OK fresh but much, much better suited at 1600m, and on drier ground. Beat Xanadu giving her 2.5kg at home in G1.
6 – FLORIA – Resumes. First Oz start and P.Moody trains. Comes up big odds at $26 given she trialled quite well and wasn’t far off Say No More when they clashed in NZ.
2 – XANADU – Been top-4 in 13 of 16. Boasts placings to Ocean Park and King Mufhasa. Good miler. Include.
5 – SHANNARA – Can improve here at big odds. Has had little luck both runs back!

Race 4 – G1 Queen Elizabeth Stks – WFA – 2000m

9 – IT’S A DUNDEEL – Blinkers on and three G1 wins,,, Aggregate margin 13.3Lengths. Back to 2000m and takes on older horses but doubt any of these 3yo’s are scared by these older horses!
2 – RELIABLE MAN – Looked ‘big’ in the yard fresh yet still warmed up very nicely late. He was within 2/100ths of a second of Pierro’s last 200m split. Much fitter and much better suited 2000m. His Danedream/ So You Think form is world class form!!
6 – SILENT ACHIEVER – Launched late and just missed Fiveandahalfstar in BMW.. Of course, that guy beat It’s A Dundeel in a VCR Derby so…there is a case made.
1 – MANIGHAR – Hit line hard in Ryder – run was about as good as Reliable Man’s… Tipping that guy has a stack of improvement in him though…

Race 5 – G1 Champagne Stks – 2YO – 1600m

3 – FAST ‘N’ ROCKING – Forced very wide in Slipper and ran home well, his 12.04 last 200m was the race fastest and he went every bit as well as subsequent Sires winner Guelph (home 12.28). Has looked 1400/1600m horse for ages now!
2 – CRITERION – Missed kick and finished just off Fast N Rocking in Slipper (home 12.18).. Beat Fast N Rocking prior. Jumps to 1600m.
11 – GUELPH – Relished 1400m in Sires (off good 4th in Slipper) and went wide/powered home to beat hot pot Overreach and Co. Mile looks no issue. Obviously can win.
9 – DRAGO – Ran well at big odds 2nd go given slow start and was only 4L off Guelph. Yes 1600m. Has more upside than above three here.
12 – SCANDIVA – Rock solid in Sires splitting Guelph and Overreach. The 1600m is some tiny query I guess but must have a case too.

Race 6 – Sydney Cup – 3200m

4 – KELINNI – Thought he was a risk with 60kg back in trip last week… Wrong!! Last 3200m run he was 4th in a Melbourne Cup.
5 – MALUCKYDAY – Kept closing in BMW and we know he will be strong at 3200m. Forgive Melb cup flop when well beaten by Kelinni. Long time between wins is testing us…
3 – JULIENAS – Went like a busted last time… Previous form was excellent. Two second to Kelinni last prep is an obvious reference.
8 – TREMEC – Had the run and tough win in Chairman’s. Looks a genuine stayer and in the mix.
9 – ALIYANA TILDE – Sound but couldn’t peg back Tremec in the lead-up but was 1900-to-2600m and also should stay.
6 – BLOOD BROTHA – A hope on same reference…

Race 7 – G1 All Aged Stks – WFA – 1400m

7 – ALL TOO HARD – Two dominant wins this prep, at the end of last prep he ran down Pierro then beat all-bar one in a Cox Plate… And thrashed 3rd too (Pierro). He will do me.
6 – MORE JOYOUS – Top 2nd to star Pierro fresh then luckless and clearly should have won last time. Danger.
3 – RAIN AFFAIR – Set a fearsome speed and held on for 4th to Black Caviar last time. Might be back to best. At his last 1400m run he made Atlantic Jewel really work to beat him!
8 – EPAULETTE – Nice trial then lovely return splitting Black Caviar and Bel Sprinter. Was 2.2L off All Too Hard (Pierro 2nd) in Caulfield Guineas rememeber…

Race 8 – Hall Mark Stks – 1200m

15 – SOFT SAND – Back/Wide forgive fresh run. Was running on well when ran out of room late 2nd-up and wasn’t far off 2nd (Arinosa won easy). Looks good speed on paper for her to rocket home and good roughie $18.
4 – DECISION TIME – Even run in hot TJ Smith at WFA. 3rd to Bel Sprinter/ Snitzerland prior in sizzling time reads well for SWP race. Ready to win again!
11 – SEE THE WORLD – Stayed inside (doubt best ground) and big win prior from 3L last. Cool S.Arnold rides off this hot speed…
13 – SOMEPIN ANYPIN – Resumes. Was ridden but good tough trial win. Last fresh run was 1.6L 3rd to G1 winner Moment Of Change.
12 – BOLD GLANCE – Resumes. Good trial in good heat. Won 3 x races fresh. Chance/Overs?
1 – FAT AL – Resumes. Sound trial. Brave 2nd fresh last prep. 59.5kg?

Good luck !

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Apr

2013

Ozracingform.com – G1 email – ATC Derby Day 2013

Author: Gator

Produced by: http://www.ozracingform.com
Email/ Feedback: gators@ozracingform.com

PLEASE NOTE:
All ratings for FLEMINGTON are for DEAD track. Rail is 6m. Rail was True last time here and there was no mad pattern but in straight races they used middle of track. Doubt any on-pace or inside pattern will emerge here. In Sydney we are back at RANDWICK and ratings are for DEAD track. Rail is True. Track looked/played very well here a few weeks back and has been hardly used of late so expecting very level playing field.

BET OF THE DAY (Melb):
FLEMINGTON – Race 6 No.5 - ZABISCO – Luckless in Easter Cup and had a bit to give! That was his first go 2000m. Wide no cover and excellent in Golden Mile prior. Flying! Bossy knows him. Loves big tracks like Flemington. Keen! Come up $9.50.. Must be a typo??

BET OF THE DAY (Syd)
RANDWICK – Race 2 No.2 – TOYDINI - Has a rocket finish on him, looked to be just getting home OK last time then absolutely flew that last 150m. Step to 1600m ideal. He looks to have more upside than many here too.

BEST VALUE BET OF THE DAY
RANDWICK – Race 8 No.4 – DYSTOPIA – Brilliant trial before good 4th in Galaxy run in near record time and back to own sex, out to 1200m with winnble weight. Goes close. $10 looks silly odds.

BEST EACH-WAY BET OF THE DAY
RANDWICK – Race 3 No.7 - SAIL – Good finish in Keith Nolan at Kembla when .8L off Unimpeachable (the fave) and has 2kg on her, and 5kg on Royal Descent. Might be the value here at $9 mark. Will relish 2000m.

BEST ROUGHIE OF THE DAY
FLEMINGTON – Race 4 No.5 – PERFECT LENGTH – Lost ground/Shuffled back key stage latest then ran home well (2nd-fastest last 200m) in what was on-pace dominated race and now meets winner King’s Palace 3kg better. Great value at $10 as I type…

Lay Of The Day:
RANDWICK – Race 8 No.5 – ARINOSA – Just at a new level this prep. Big finale/win over Shamal Wind last time… Only tiny, tiny query, is she looking for 1400m now? Some unders??

TOP-RATED RUNNERS:

FLEMINGTON

Race 1 – 3YO Hcp – 1000m

10 – TRICKY GLEN – Top fresh win when well backed then solid in good race at Bendigo. Good finish with far from ideal run latest. Back to 1000m. Looks overs $13.
5 – GENTEEL – Resumes. Easy fresh win last prep Gosford beating older horses then won this track/trip very well. Only defeat that prep was too smart Isabella Snowflake. Can win!
4 – FLAMBERGE – Touched off by a good filly in Angelic Light at MV. Well held 5th-horse Generalife beat older horses Wednesday. Back to 1000m a real query but straight-track can off-set same and, has simply the best formline.
2 – DAY PROCEDURE – 4-wide no cover and forget last run. The win prior and 2nd to subsequent G1 winner Shamexpress reads very well.
1 – LANKAN RUPEE – OK return and fitter. To 1000m won’t hurt. 58kg no help but chance.

Race 2 – 3YOF Hcp – 1400m

6 – LATER GATOR – She is the weight horse here. Plummets 6.5kg from Caulfield 3rd and meets key rivals up to 6.5kg better. Sits off good speed. Tough race but can spec at $8.
1 – LADY OF HARRODS – Good return in hot race in Adelaide (Shamal wind and Co.) then close-up Rosehill in, again, a very deep race. Back to own sex. Out to 1400m/3rd-up. She was 3rd-up at 1400m last prep when beat subsequent G1 winner Commanding Jewel. Can win!
16 – NAUTICAL – Maiden but should have won both starts to date and the horses that beat her have both since run enormous. May measure up at big odds here.
8 – MALUTI – Closed well Canterbury fresh. 2nd-up last prep she split Thunder Rain and Edgewod who are both smart. Chance.
5 – COINS – Good return Caulfield when perhaps not in A-ground and fitter/1400m suits.
10 – SPITFIRE LADY – Has a case too…

Race 3 – 2YO – SWP – 1200m

8 – WASHINGTON SQUARE – worked to line well at 900m fresh in fast time in race won by one who then accepted for Golden Slipper (but missed the run). Sound 3rd in race Iconic was 2nd on debut reads well Vs there. Jumps to 1200m.
7 – TONYBOY – Wide on speed and good debut 4th Bendigo behind Iconic (see – that ties in nicely). Better for that and gets softer run gate 4.
2 – CHURCHILL DANCER – Came wide and just missed Weinholt last time in good effort, that was his first go 1200m off forgivable run at Bendigo in that Iconic race.
4 – HARD STRIDE – Wide/Good debut Vs Iconic then did some early work and went down swinging to Weinholt. In this.
3 – DÁMPEZZO – 1st-start. No trials. By Reset and Dam was a gifted sprinter. Stable’s 2yo’s flying.

Race 4 – Galilee Final 3YO – 2500m

5 – PERFECT LENGTH – Lost ground/Shuffled back key stage latest then ran home well (2nd-fastest last 200m) in what was on-pace dominated race and now meets winner King’s Palace 3kg better. Great value at $10 as I type…
1 – SERPENT – Really strong staying effort in NZ St Leger when out to 2500m at just start six. Come up fave, and short, but looks really hard to beat as not sure depth of these 3yo’s…???
3 – SHOREHAM – First go 2000m latest and went forward/gave all. Likely to stay and prefer with cover. Chance.
2 – KINGS PALACE – No knock on the win Caulfield as he covered ground and was gallant. Also should stick 2500m.
6 – BESSANO – Green but talented and beat older horses at 2100m before bit unlucky latest? Big track suits. Chance.
7 – BEL THOR – Much better last time racing handy and in the mix too.

Race 5 – Hcp – 1600m

5 – BONARIA – Good ride/win this track/trip two-back beating subsequent G2/WFA winner Spirit Song then was stopped when closing in said G2/WFA race with weights dead against her. Takes on males but can win.
9 – ERASET – Good return then went inside into slower ground Bendigo and that form (Jet Away/ Folding Gear) reads well. Good miler. Good 3rd-up. Likes it here.
11 – SWEET ELLA – Caught wide and kept closing Caulfield and ran well. Very good to Ninth Legion prior which reads well. Only mile run was a top win at Caulfield last prep.
12 – SHARALAM – Good win at the Oz debut rolling Zevada who is good (and then won). 1600m more suitable. Go well.
1 – CALLANISH – Pulled/Faded in Easter Cup. The close 4th in Blamey prior reads well for this, in fact, is 3 of 4 at 1600m. Expect better.
3 – BRITISH GENERAL – May get outright lead here. Keeps racing well… but finding one, two better… Pattern crucial.
2 – STAR OF GISELLE – Back here, to 1600m, has a case too.

Race 6 – Hcp – 2000m

5 – ZABISCO – Luckless in Easter Cup and had a bit to give! That was his first go 2000m. Wide no cover and excellent in Golden Mile prior. Flying! Bossy knows him. Loves big tracks like Flemington. Keen!
2 – BANCA MO – Good horse. Beat another good one in Dany The Fox Pakenham Cup latest and his 2000m run was a top 3L win MV.
8 – AULD BURNS – Top win 3rd-up then sound 2nd to Whisper Downs (and they thrashed 3rd). Whisper Downs then was terrific in that Easter Cup Zabisco was luckless in. Can win.
9 – GOLDONI – Gets to 2000m now which suits. More than sound 2nd-up but winner had match fitness on side. In this.
19 – XAVI – First try 2000m but looks ok if he can settle. Limited luck latest. Can he get a start…??

Race 7 – Hcp – 1000m

6 – LADY MELKSHAM – Terrific return win 955m/MV with big weight when squeezed through narrow gap and got up. Surpised they stay at the short-course trip but straight-track can off-set that. She has a touch of class and $5 looks fair enough.
7 – THAT’S THE ONE – Resumes. Good/unlucky 1.4L 4th MV to Sea Lord fresh last prep. 2nd to Mosheen fresh-up prior. He can win this!
9 – SHARNEE ROSE – Ran over Elite Elle fresh, that girl then looked like a star winning MV last week. Again, surprised they chose 1000m race but straight track, playing at home… She is quality too.
1 – GENERAL TRUCE – Always a must in these off-season sprints. Proven straight-track. Gate 2 not great bonus but hard to leave out isn’t he…
8 – EIGHT BILLS – Forever luckless. If they dodge Friday Night and run here he goes in too.
12 – DECIRCLES – We know is good enough, doubt all was well last time, freshened.

Race 8 – 0-89 – 1400m

6 – LAKE SENTENTIA – Did enough fresh given massive impost giving weight to males. Not exactly pitched in here 58.5kg either but fitter, big track suits and was G2 placed here before spell and beat home Silent Achiever.
14 – RUGGED CROSS – Beat a handy field at 1300m at the Oz debut and does boast 2nd-up win at home at 1400m. Big track here late in the day (so expect run ons will get their chance) and go well.
8 – CRUCIAL – Resumes. Hit line and was less than 3L off Serene Star fresh last prep in stakes race at Caulfield/1200m. If wound up for 1400m fresh she can beat these 0-89 rivals and has come up good odds.
7 – TWILIGHTING – Wasn’t far way fresh in strong off-season sprint and last win was at 1400m when beat the handy Shopaholic, then wasn’t far off Mosheen… Include at odds too.
16 – MECIR – Not sure how genuine but very talented and 1400m suits. Little luck latest.
17 – MIDSUMMER SUN – Goes in if they secure a run too…

RANDWICK

Race 1 – Kindergarten Stks – 2YO – 1100m

2 – SAFEGUARD – Resumes. Was dominant on debut beating Mount Zero (who was Ok behind Miracles Of Life) then spelled. Good/Close 3rd in recent trial when went every bit as well as Charlie Boy, who then ran well in a Golden Slipper.
6 – IL CAVALLO – Smashed the clock on debut and world class trainer then entered for Golden Slipper, but missed a run, looks very smart!
7 – EVERAGE – The value runner at $17 for mine. Terrific trial win 8/4. Beat Twilight Royale then ran 2nd to Overreach! Great formlines.
3 – DIAMOND OASIS – Stuck on OK in high-rating race Rosehill and Sidestep then was excellent in the Golden Slipper.
1 – ICONIC – Tough win in blanket finish Bendigo. Step to 1100m some query but that form is shaping OK despite said busy finish…

Race 2 – Carbine Club Stks – 1600m 3YO – 1600m

2 – TOYDINI – Has a rocket finish on him, looked to be just getting home OK last time then absolutely flew that last 150m. Step to 1600m ideal. He looks to have more upside than many here too.
1 – TATRA – Back to 1600m looks a plus, recent mile form is 3.3L 3rd to It’s A Dundeel/Proisir and Sandown Guineas win over Lunar Rise/Proverb (who are here). Will have head start on Toydini turning. Danger.
3 – LUNAR RISE – Went back 100m to 1300m 2nd-up, carried 58kg against older horses, and just no match (no surprise he was huge betting drifter – odd placement it was!). Out to mile now. Beat Tatra at this trip then was 2nd to him in Sandown Guineas.
5 – FLYING SNITZEL – Flew past Norzita (then won G1) running sizzling sectionals then worked home OK in Coolmore. Unproven 1600m is the query but chance.
4 – PROVERB – Was just OK last week. Wasn’t far off Tatra at this trip prior when hit line nicely so that puts him in the race, esp. with 1kg advantage.

Race 3 – Adrian Knox Stks – 3YOF – 2000m

7 – SAIL – Good finish in Keith Nolan at Kembla when .8L off Unimpeachable (the fave) and has 2kg on her, and 5kg on Royal Descent. Might be the value here at $9 mark. Will relish 2000m.
3 – UNIMPEACHABLE – Looking for 2000m herself, didn’t ping at Kembla but was strong late then just missed here with massive weight (beaten by handicapper). Serious winning hope.
6 – QUEENSTOWN – Impressed at WFM in smart time, jumps 1400-to-2000m but trained by Gai. Rolls forward. Measures up!
10 – DIVERTIRE – Beat Unimpeachable at Randwick when well ridden with 5kg swing. No knock though, was 1400-to-1800m… In the mix but suspect Unimpeachable can turn tables.
1 – ROYAL DESCENT – Tough here at the relative weights but swap the runs with winner Cameo at Kembla and she wins it. Maps well. Chance.

Race 4 – Chairmans Hcp – 2600m

11 – HATHRAS – Like the way he held his ground when beaten off in G1 at WFA last week, back to Hcp and 53kg and will eat 2600m on that run! Keen runs well.
2 – JULIENAS – Flying and doing so with big weights. Strong win in Manion Cup and other 2400m run was WFA 2nd to Kelinni who, of course, then ran 4th in a Melb cup.
7 – ALIYANA TILDE – Strong finish/win in Epona against her own sex. Steps to 2600m, her only other un this distance range is narrow 2nd to Streama in ATC Oaks. Can win.
4 – PERMIT – Sound 2nd to Julienas At Rosehill and has 1.5kg swing today so has a case too.
12 – HULA LUA – Didn’t ping last week but stuck on when beaten indicating she wants this trip… she was 6-weeks between runs there too… Hmmm.

Race 5 – Sires Stks – 2YO – 1400m

7 – OVERREACH – Strong win on-pace in Slipper with wet no issue, was braining them in fast times on dry prior. Don’t see 1400m pulling her up.
1 – CHARLIE BOY – Just had so much go wrong in Slipper, slow out/last/went widest yet had 2nd-fastest last 200m. At $15+ do suspect he is the value/danger.
8 – GUELPH – Sound finish in Slipper and looks a 1400m filly. Had break between runs into that too.
2 – CHAMPOLLION – Will make nice 3YO. Weaved through and won well last week in easier race (than Slipper that is) but has a stack of upside. May want 1600m now but some hope.
3 – WINDJAMMER – Desperate for 1400m now, also think drier ground than Slipper will help him. Some hope.

Race 6 – Doncaster Prelude – 1600m

9 – RASPBERRIES – No hope Vs tempo fresh. Good finale in Newcastle Newmarket 2nd-up. Last 3rd-up run was 1L 6th to Appearance in G1 Myer Classic. That was also her last 1600m run.
13 – MAHISARA – Sat up on speed in Newcastle Newmarket and battled well (was chopped out late) and easily beat Raspberries in Melb before the spell.
5 – ALMA’S FURY – Just even at the 1900m last time. Quickly back to 1600m, he was good 1.8L 6th at this trip prior, in G1 at WFA. Can win!
4 – HAVANA REY – Finished alongside Alma’s Fury in that G1/WFA at 1600m in good effort, won two before that, and one since. Just flying!
14 – SHENZHOU STEEDS – Just Ok fresh at Caulfield. Was sound 4th to Folding Gear (then ran well in Caul Cup) 2nd-up last prep. June 2012 the last win.
3 – SKYERUSH – Has a case too ridden colder atthis trip.

Race 7 – G1 ATC Derby – 3YO – 2400m

1 – IT’S A DUNDEEL – Slashing run fresh then blinkers on and won next two brilliantly at 1600/2000m. Don’t worry about VRC Derby miss, he ran super but just got lost that day (mile back). Star 3yo!
3 – PHILIPPI – Impressed last week easily beating a few who had been semi-competitive with It’s A Dundeel. Should relish trip.
9 – HIGH SHOT – Lost momentum and ended up mile back turning then picked-up and was ok through the line behind Philippi last week. Yes 2400m. Tipping he gets much, much closer the stablemate here given even luck.
5 – HIPPOPUS – Sound but no match Philippi last week and trip looks no issue. each-way hope.
2- HVASSTAN – Beat Philippi then too bad to be true Rosehill latest. Next best.

Race 8 – Sapphire Stks – Mares – 1200m

4 – DYSTOPIA – Brilliant trial before good 4th in Galaxy run in near record time and back to own sex, out to 1200m with winnble weight. Goes close.
16 – SHAMAL WIND – Just about Run Of The Day in Adelaide then burst through and looked winner last time, then Arinosa swooped. Has weight advantage and real upside. Gate 2. Go well.
5 – ARINOSA – Just at a new level this prep. Big finale/win over Shamal Wind last time… Only tiny, tiny query, is she looking for 1400m now? Goes in everything.
3 – ALTAR – Led and had little peace fresh, she ran well off nice trial form and 2nd-up last prep held off all-bar Unpretentious who many were tipping to run well in Galaxy until scratched at gates…Overs??
9 – DETOURS – Resumes. Very good trial. Did same thing before last prep then sat 4-wide and Caulfield and brained a handy field.

Race 9 – TJ Smith Stks – WFA – 1200m

9 – BLACK CAVIAR – Brilliant return win in record time then nice barrier trial at MV. As good as ever according to trainer…
2 – BEL SPRINTER – Blew start, circled them and went straight past some exceptional horses in Galaxy and was within .06 of the track record. That’s the Bel Sprinter we knew!!!
4 – DECISION TIME – Two good runs off 76-week break, have to assume there is improvement into this 3rd-up run, gets 2.5kg on Bel Sprinter too.
7 – HOWMUCHDOYOULOVEME – Good return but had gut-buster on fast pace then flat one 2nd-up when never in right spot. Expecting better!
3 – RAIN AFFAIR – Stuck OK to Pierro/ More Joyous fresh and they both won, or should have won, G1′s last week…

Good luck !

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