Horse Racing Tips Archive: 10 October 2008

Racing was at FLEMINGTON last week and the track played quite well, as expected with the 9m rail, the inside didn't chop out much. The 2yo's came inside in straight races, the older horses outside (later in day of course).

Run Of The Day:

Going with FORENSICS in race 7, she was bailed away hopelessly at a vital stage then held up again halfway up the straight before flashing at the line. Excellent effort !

Others in race 6 saw the winner BELLINI ROSE secure the best run, and win. ABSOLUT GLAM was out in time but couldn't get past the winner and VIKING TURF BELLE loomed at big odds off an interrupted run. PRINCESS MARIZZA closed in very nicely, only Forensics had faster closing splits. GRAND JOURNEY did enough (sound sectionals). Time 1:24.16 for 1410m off a 49.59 1st-810m.

In race 3 TINDAL did some early work but then was able to steady midrace and get a few cheap 200m sectionals, he kicked away nicely but the best run in the race was the runner-up HEART OF DREAMS who was held-up badly just as the winner was skipping clear. He then charged late and got very close! Should have won!! BHUTANE DANE (every chance) ran 3rd and beat 4th ok. Time for the 3yo's at 1410m was 1:23.69, the fastest of the 3 x 1410m races on the day. They went 48.45 their 1st-810m.

Race 4 was totally dominated on-pace and LIGHT VISION out-toughed a tough horse in BAUGHURST and they beat 3rd, ZAVITE quite comfortably. ZAVITE took up the running 1200m out and was game. Not a Caulfield Cup horse but a MV Cup might be within his grasp. MOATIZE had the fastest last 200m sectional of the race and was the pick of the run-ons. BANANA MAN will make a nice stayer, this was a forgive/forget run off this tempo.

In Race 5 JABAL TARIK gave a neat kick 300m out and that 2 length 'ping' was enough to hold off LARGO LAD who really stretched out well against the slow pace. His 11.82 last 200m was exactly the same as Zipping in the Turnbull (fastest of his race). Thought SADDLERS STORY was good here too after being held-up a touch, he was only 2nd-up. PACINO is a cat, SOUND JOURNEY ?? 5-weeks off? Not sure anymore...

In race 7 the winner GALLICA had the good trail and won nicely, she keeps improving. She ran 1:38.02 (remember the race was 1610m not 1600m). Others: CATS WHISKER (good/ every chance), SPARKS FLY (best closing sectionals) & ROMNEYA (midfield wide with trail, honest effort, she had set-back prior remember).

The Turnbull was Race 8 and LITTORIO had the good run sitting back off a fast tempo (1:15.61 1st-1200m, 50.34 1st-800m) and was quite impressive even given the weight pull. MASTER O'REILLY peeled wide, was outside the winner 400m out but couldn't sprint with him, his last 100m was excellent! ZIPPING never runs poorly and ran home hard here, his 23.08/11.82 last 400/200m were fastest of the race. POMPEII RULER (honest effort),GUILLOTINE (if he ever learns to settle, look out !) & EFFICIENT (nice last 100m) were all noteworthy. They ran 2:02.44 for the 2000m.

The Gilgai was Race 9 and the super genuine EL CAMBIO had the good run through and was very solid. SWICK looked a shade unlucky weaving home & hitting the line super. MURTAJILL was honest, GRAND DUELS ditto... In fact the first 8 over the line were all within a couple of lengths of each other. They all came outside, they ran 1:10.10 off a 35.01 1st-600m

In the last it was SEA BATTLE again proving too strong for great combatant ROCKPECKER... Just two really good/genuine racehorses. This race was set-up for on-pacers as they ran a 51-second 1st-810m. HERE DE ANGELS was good after bombing the start with 60kg. Both RAMPANT LION & PLAYWRIGHT had sound late sectionals Vs the tempo. Time for 1410m was 1:25.10

The Forgive File:

BEACONS (amiss), LARRY'S NEVER LATE (held-up vital stage), MEMORISE (held-up/ tempo against/ stiff !), STREET SENSATION (good vs tempo), PADDY O'REILLY )no speed on/ no hope!), MILES ABOVE (spell and come back when you know what you are doing!), OUTDO (ran off track?), INKSTER (tempo no help), KIBBUTZ (tempo/ big weight = no hope), CHOLULA (amiss), GABBIDON (held-up, out very late), MIMI LEBROCK (put onto rail, twice), TRANSLATE (no luck), ARAPAHO MISS (elevated heart rate/ lacerations in mouth), MOVIN OUT (struck trouble), SUBPRIME (wide), WEEKEND HUSSLER (wide, worked forward before turn, would have needed to be Phar Lap !!), TUESDAY JOY (bled), ZAGREB (swallowed dirt/ choked), CARGO CULT (may have won !?!?), STAVKA (lame) and AZTEC SMYTZER (plenty against, wide/tempo, ran well).

... Sydney video came to me too late so apologies. To make up for it, Group 1 subscribers will have a Cranbourne Cup edition emailed to them this afternoon. Also, don't forget our special Thousand Guineas edition out Tuesday evening.

To today's racing...

PLEASE NOTE: All ratings for CAULFIELD are for GOOD track. Rail is True. Run-ons are near certain to be far from disadvantaged as the day goes on.

In Sydney racing is at ROSEHILL and ratings are for GOOD track. Rail True. Again suspect run-ons will be well suited especially as the day goes on.

BET OF THE DAY (Melb)

CAULFIELD - Race 7 No.11 - WHOBEGOTYOU - Should have won 1st-up. Had slow pace and found a heap of trouble at a vital stage 2nd-up but loved the way he hit the line. Outstanding win 3rd-up in the Stutt Stks (was checked slightly 900m/ got to outside and beat them running away!). Remember that track was suiting on-pacers. Will get further than 1600m but the good speed on paper here suits and like the fact this is race 7 (not race 1) at Caulfield...

BET OF THE DAY (Syd)

ROSEHILL - Race 8 No.4 - BOBADAH - Found the line super 1st-up behind Typhoon Zed/ Raheeb (great form race) then was given no hope (wide all way) in a Cameron Hcp. Loves Rosehill and in well after the claim from ideal draw.

BEST VALUE BET OF THE DAY

CAULFIELD - Race 1 No.3 - ECLAIR FANTASTIC - Thrashed the handy Ballerina Girl on debut (and was not punished late) then beat Forays (Hayes 2yo who had won on debut by 6 lengths!) and ran smart time (ran almost identical time as older sprinters that day). Very happy to back him and think the $7 early doors is 'value'...

BEST EACH-WAY BET OF THE DAY

CAULFIELD - Race 3 No.6 - FAST FUTURE - He is sooo ready to win. Certainly did enough at WFA two-back then went right back and came wide on on-pacer biased track yet his last 100m was lovely! Gets to 2400m and the small field is ideal. Suspect Cefalu & Zavite can set it up for him to finish over the top... Shop around and you'll get each-way odds.

BEST ROUGHIE OF THE DAY

CAULFIELD - Race 9 No.3 - BELONG TO MANY - Thought she ran really well 1st-up staying hard inside which was inferior ground by the final race at Rosehill and beat all-bar impressive swooper My Vegas. She has 2nd-up form, she has won in Melbourne (at MV) and she has the quality (has a win over Fritz's Princess, she beat star mare Hot Danish last week). Gate 19 may be the right spot by now...???

TOP-RATED RUNNERS

CAULFIELD

Race 1 - Harolds Plate - 3yoC&G - 1200m

3 - ECLAIR FANTASTIC - Thrashed the handy Ballerina Girl on debut (and was not punished late) then beat Forays (Hayes 2yo who had won on debut by 6 lengths!) and ran smart time (ran almost identical time as older sprinters that day). Very happy to back him.
4 - STRUMMING - Gave his all 1st-up in a handy midweek race then struck trouble and should have finished closer to the smart Born Princess at MV last time. Looks desperate for 1200m to my eye. Very genuine.
13 - HAKA - Had no luck on debut when .8L 4th to Carryusall (meets him 1.5kg better), that horse had been ok on debut behind Naku Pender so the form ties in. Note, he was right in betting off a terrific trial and will be better for that.
10 - ZIZZ - Nice win on debut ($4-to-$5.5) and ran time beating Cat Storm (will win races) and they thrashed the rest. Stable don't rush them to town if they aren't ready.
2 - NAKU PENDER - Beat Tindal (had dream run) and that horse then won at Flemington last week. Wasn't far off Time Thief 1st-up in a hot form race. Jumps in the weights but from gate 2 will get the good run again and looks a horse on the up.

Race 2 - Hcp - 1400m

3 - SHARKBITE - Scratched from a very winnable race last week. He simply comes through the best race, the Bobbie Lewis and that form has been excellent (Orange County/ Bon Hoffa etc) and he wasn't far away, he will relish getting out to 1400m peaking 3rd-up and drawn gate 1.
1 - FALAISE - Also comes through some hot races. He made good ground in the G3 Bill Ritchie last time (that form shaping well) off a good third to Raheeb in a Cameron Hcp run in slick time. Has the 58kg but has a touch of class.
15 - SECRET FLYER - Was just no match for Gold Salute 1st-up but now gets a nice 3.5kg weight-pull and will be fitter. He beat all-bar Diario 2nd-up last prep and won 2nd-up at his previous attempt.
14 - GOLD SALUTE - Good return win at MV beating Secret Flyer and the hot-pot Kroner. Stays down in weights (but has relative weights against as stated). Had problems (post E.I.) last prep, his form prior was really good... almost 'top-class type potential good'...
10 - GUILD - Likely leader (Race 2 Caulfield) and must forgive last run (leading in race 8 at Caulfield off a strong pace in swooper's race). She beat Benatar prior who then ran second to Vivacious Spirit in that 'swooper's race' here. In light. Chance/Overs?

Race 3 - G2 Winning Edge Stks - 2400m

6 - FAST FUTURE - He is sooo ready to win. Certainly did enough at WFA two-back then went right back and came wide on on-pacer biased track yet his last 100m was lovely! Gets to 2400m and the small field is ideal. Suspect Cefalu & Zavite can set it up for him to finish over the top...
4 - ANAMATO - She ran terrific last time when 2.5L off Cefalu (gets 2kg advantage today) as she wobbled around the turn, lost ground, then attacked the line beating Fast Future by nearly 1 length. She pulled hard (racing handy) in the 2007 Caulfield Cup at her only go this trip, and faded. That remains a query but this is no Caulfield Cup and she will be ridden quieter I'm sure.
7 - THE WOLVERINE - Keeps running very well. Ran home strongly in the G2 Hill Stks in Sydney from well back off a slow pace. He had recorded some of the fastest sectionals of the day his previous two over unsuitable trips. He failed at 2500m one day but that inconclusive. This will tell us if he can stay...
5 - ZAVITE - Must forgive his Naturalism flop when leading against the pattern by the last race there. He took over 1200m from home in a slowly run race at Flemington and boxed on ok but was no match for the quinella Light Vision/ Baughurst who are flying. He beat Cefalu in the Q.E. Stks last Spring taking a sit on him, expect same here.
3 - CEFALU - Led and did not walk up front and showed great courage to win the JRA Cup at big odds. Ok, the track was suiting on-pacers but 2040m is not his ideal trip and he was only 3rd-up. Gets to his right trip now, will give them something to catch again!

Race 4 - G2 Schillaci Stks - WFA - 1000m

5 - GAMBLE ME - Normally happy to play against Waterhouse runners 1st-up in Melbourne but this mare, of course, was ex-Freedman and has a great Caulfield record. Her 1st-up run in Sydney was excellent (slow out/ charged home/ best sectionals). She is unbeaten (3 from 3 second-up) including a win 2nd-up last prep with 58kg against the males. Back to 1000m only tiny query...?
8 - WILANDER - Top return at Flemington as he started heading to the outside rail, then ran to inside rail midrace (never seen one win doing that up the straight) and he fought off all-bar the promising Olonana. He led and bolted in a Blue Diamond Prelude 2nd-up last prep.
2 - TESBURY JACK - Simply too good 1st-up then connections blamed wet ground for 2nd-up flop, was poor again 3rd-up? Is a top-class sprinter on his day, been one of my fave's so giving him one more chance...
1 - KAPHERO - His last 8 1000m runs have seen him win 7 times and run second in the other. The query, he is zero from seven here at Caulfield but there is no doubt he is a much better horse now than the early (fast squib) days.
3 - LUCKY SECRET - Battled ok but was no match for Kaphero 1st-up (MV) but looked in need of the run there. Blitzed his rivals 2nd-up with that added fitness. Has won 7 of 8 on Good/Dead tracks and was injured in the miss...

Race 5 - G1 Yalumba Stks - WFA - 2000m

1 - POMPEII RULER - Hit the front and looked a big chance 200m out in the Turnbull but was run-down by the big-finishers off that strong tempo. Remember the Turnbull is not WFA and he had the 58.5kg, he may well be even better for that. Go close.
8 - LARGO LAD - Lining him up through Guillotine (thought he was better than Guillotine in Autumn) and going on his terrific effort last week rattling home off a modest tempo (rolled in/ still learning). Wants 2000m, jumps to WFA.
7 - GUILLOTINE - Pulled hard last week and stuck on very well (was 2 lengths off Pompeii Ruler) in swooper's race off two terrific wins for the new stable. Meets Pompeii 1.5kg worse here at WFA but gut feeling is, if he learns to relax like big-brother Efficient he could be anything!
3 - CASUAL PASS - Good effort last time with his 60kg sitting on a hot pace. Just missed Guillotine prior (outsped at 1600m but hit line hard). He beat Pompeii Ruler and El Segundo in this two years ago.
2 - SIRMIONE - Looks ready to fire. That Princess Coup Autumn form looks super, she was the mare he beat 3rd-up last prep in an Australian Cup. He peeled wide early last time (2nd-up) and ran much better than the formguide says.

Race 6 - G1 Toorak Hcp - 1600m

13 - RAHEEB - I'm a fan. Forgiving the Epsom Hcp when travelled sweetly but went to water when let-down on the wet track. His (fast) Cameron Hcp win prior was super! First go Caulfield (worked well here midweek) and drawn a touch awkward (race 6 - rail off yet?) but very happy to back if double-figure odds...
14 - TURFFONTEIN - Worked home very well in the Rupert Clarke when 2.8L off Orange County (gets 2kg pull) and gets to 1600m, his last 1600m run he won the Queensland Guineas.
2 - ORANGE COUNTY - Certainly 'one of ours' and was totally dominant in the Rupert Clarke. Drawn out (pattern?) jumps in weight and have always thought he runs a strong 1580m but that last bit of 1600m at the top level ??? In saying that, he is better than ever these days! Goes in.
3 - ALAMOSA - Is the one coming back from WFA competition. He less than 2L off Weekend Hussler two-back then went through (too soon off strong pace) and joined in at MV but was left sitting shot behind Guillotine & Co. Her 1600m stats are outstanding. Can win.
1 - BON HOFFA - Flew home in the Rupert Clarke (couldn't match Orange County's sprint but was strong late) and wants every bit of 1600m now. He came very wide and ran 1.5L 4th to superstar mare Divine Madonna in this last year.
10 - SEA BATTLE - Next best. Flying for this stable. Gets a strong 1600m but needs luck from the gate is all.

Race 7 - G1 Caulfield Guineas - 3yo - 1600m

11 - WHOBEGOTYOU - Should have won 1st-up. Had slow pace and found a heap of trouble at a vital stage 2nd-up but loved the way he hit the line. Outstanding win 3rd-up in the Stutt Stks (was checked slightly 900m/ got to outside and beat them running away!). Remember that track was suiting on-pacers. Will get further than 1600m but the good speed on paper here suits and like the fact this is race 7 (not race 1) at Caulfield...
3 - ALL AMERICAN - Sat handy (used up a bit early) in the Stutt Stks and held on well to beat all-bar Whobegotyou. Ran well without luck in the Golden Rose fresh (behind Duporth) and that form has been terrific. Forgive G1/WFA 2nd-up at 1200m. Gets the gun run here. Can win.
2 - DUPORTH - Won the (good form) Golden Rose then battled home well in G1/George Main Vs older horses off a set-back. Gut feeling is that brings him back to his top for this, his goal from 2-months back... Stable get them around Caulfield generally but always a query Sydney horses 1st go here...
5 - CARNERO - Had no luck at all in the Stutt Stks but kept closing in. Had no luck prior also (held-up vital stage/ hit line late!). Think he and Minnesota Shark are the best roughies...
1 - VON COSTA DE HERO - Peaks for this. Came home hard in the prelude beating home Whobegotou off a total forgive run 1st-up against the bias at MV. Has always looked a 'miler'...
12 - MINNESOTA SHARK - Got a mile back in the prelude and actually ran home his last 200m faster than Whobegotyou (.25 secs faster to be precise) then came very wide in the Stutt and ran very well. May get out to big odds on the tote... Goes in.

Race 8 - G3 Thoroughbred Club Stks - 3yoF - 1200m

11 - MARGHAM - 1st-up. Covered ground on debut and went down in a photo to Olonana (she then beat Wilander 1st-up at Flemington) before bolting in a race at Newcastle. Stable no worries travelling them, she may well have come on lengths. Hmmm...
7 - OLONANA - Looked raw but beat Margham on debut then spelled. Resumed with a big win (beat Wilander - see race 4 for form ref.) sailing down the outside of the straight, again looked raw but looked highly talented !!
3 - IMPRESSIVE EAGLE - Would be top-pick if this were 1400m. Thought she took a stride to wind-up at MV but loved the way she attacked the line when 3rd to Dan Baroness & Ortensia (both since run very well). In her favour is a likely truly run race and the sincere doubt, by race 8, horses cannot sweep home down the centre... Goes in everything.
1 - VIENNESE - Raced 3-wide on the speed in swooper's race 2nd-up, her effort to be beaten only 1.9L in that hot form race (Dan Baroness/ Ortensia) was terrific. Big win (wide also) fresh prior. Gets good run whilst others will be back...
2 - MARVEEN - Best weighted runner in the race. Found outside rail and charged late to win 1st-up at Flemington then worked home well at MV with the 59kg. To 55.5kg this weight scale and is suited in a genuinely run race with run-ons not disadvantaged.
8 - PACHANGA - Was wide last time but stuck on well behind impressive debutante Typhoon Tracy, note they ran roughly 7 lengths faster than Okaylah (beat Marveen & Co.) than night... May be the one out at 40-odd dollars on tote to throw in...

Race 9 - Listed Le Tan Stks - Mares - 1200m

3 - BELONG TO MANY - Thought she ran really well 1st-up staying hard inside which was inferior ground by the final race at Rosehill and beat all-bar impressive swooper My Vegas. She has 2nd-up form, she has won in Melbourne (at MV) and she has the quality (has a win over Fritz's Princess, she beat star mare Hot Danish last week). Gate 19 may be the right spot by now...???
15 - TRANQUILITY BASE - Loved her run last time when in traffic, shuffled back but then found the line strongly behind Vivacious Spirit and Co. Forgive the miss prior in wet ground. Gate 9 for S.King ideal. Hope I'm alive in quaddie into this...
11 - JOYEUSE - She beat Vivacious Spirit 1st-up (then won brilliantly here) before failing 2nd-up but forgive that (stable reported she was in season). Has a touch of quality and note, she is unbeaten 3rd-up...
7 - ABSOLUTELYFABULOUS - Found plenty of traffic jams but kept closing in fresh at Rosehill behind the classy Judged (goof run!) then covered ground and was nosed out by specialist sprinter Global Warming 2nd-up. Back to own sex, proven the 'Melbourne way' and loves dry tracks (will be firm by race 9 at 26-degrees). Value race !
2 - BEL MER - Ran over Red Element 1st-up in a top return then covered too much ground at MV in G1 at WFA and faded. She has a win here at 1200m (and won well) running a slick 1-8.46. Plenty of other hopes: BENATAR (so honest), HANNA ROSSA (flies fresh), DISTINCTIVE LASS, BELLA VALENTINA.... etc etc...

ROSEHILL

Race 1 - 2MW Hcp - 1200m

7 - FIST OF FURY - Impressive win on debut at 1100m coming from well back and thrashing a couple of horses who have since come out and won. Better for that and will relish the rise to 1200m. Dual acceptor (also in Race 4).
1 - DEALERS - Ten starts, yet to run a bad race. Beat the handy Boys Will Be Boys back to 1200m last time off a solid 3rd to Kiloton at 1350m (here) prior. Yet to miss a place in 7 goes at 1200m...
6 - NEWS ALERT - Comes off back-to-back wins (aggregate 4.1 lengths) and speaking of honest, his worst career finish is 2.2L 5th (off a wide run) when you delete the heavy track miss. Go well !!
3 - WALKING OR DANCING - 1st-up. Has trialled well (three times! Nothing like practice I suppose). He had form around some quality horses last prep. He ran home well for 3rd at 1100m kicking off that campaign, 1200m suits better. He won fresh prior.
2 - SACRED ORDERS - Comes into it with the claim and if a few dual acceptors scratch here.

Race 2 - 2yo Hcp - 1100m

2 - AYRTON - 1st-start. Untouched in a Cranbourne trial when 3rd. Jumps states (no worries this stable) and drawn well.
9 - MOVIE - Not really a thing of mine to back a 2yo off a 7-day back-up (especially after a debut run!) but did like the way she found the line after being slow out (had best closing sectionals in on-pace race). Extra 100m suits...
8 - CAISEAL - 1st-start. Trialled well to Arctic Light. Was scratched (1st emergency) in Gimcrack Stks last week. Cost $200k
3 - BARGAINING - 1st-start. Two trials, winning latest in good style. Cost $260k.
4 - EIGHT THORNS - 1st-start. Gate 1 ideal for the babies. Ran 5th (beaten 5 lengths) in his trial but wasn't knocked about... Stable very good around youngsters !

Race 3 - 75RB Hcp - 3yo - 1400m

4 - SILENT BUT DEADLY - Kept closing nicely two-back (when 1st-up) at his only go on a dry track running over last week's winner Montana Flyer (who found lengths in wet). She was game on-pace 2nd-up. Peaks now, back on drier and in nicely after the claim. The Astronomer will be the spruik horse, can see her being the forgotten horse in this and be over her true odds (around $3.50).
1 - JUDGE ME NOT - Love the way he found the line 1st-up in winning at Doomben then chased hard behind Dreamscape/ Whitefriars (were 1-2 all way and both run in a Caulfield Guineas today). Peaks 3rd-up, gate 1.
5 - THE ASTRONOMER - Created a big impression on debut (and jockey Glen Boss was spruiking) as she overcame a nasty check to get up and win. Not 100% convinced that form will be any good and am sure this filly will come up short.. She can win, but happy to bet against.
2 - BOYS WILL BE BOYS - Beat Bhutane Dane before spelling (2nd-up). Resumed with a strong-finishing 2nd to Dealers at Randwick/1200m (see race 1 for form ref.) and that was his first go on dry. Very interesting race !
8 - TOGHA - Was slow out, green and found the line when it was all over fresh. That was his debut run, that was 1100m. To 1400m with that experience big ticks.... The blowout ??

Race 4 - 81RB Hcp - 1200m

10 - FIST OF FURY - Impressive win on debut at 1100m coming from well back and thrashing a couple of horses who have since come out and won. Better for that and will relish the rise to 1200m. Dual acceptor (race 1).
8 - ROYAL ROCK - Forgive the 1st-up run when in traffic at a vital stage. She drops many levels, she is fitter and she is well-weighted. Top-pick if Fist Of Fury goes around in race 1... Love this dual acceptor rule.. not !!!
6 - NEWS ALERT - Also engaged race 1. Comes off back-to-back wins (aggregate 4.1 lengths) and speaking of honest, his worst career finish is 2.2L 5th (off a wide run) when you delete the heavy track miss. Go well !!
3 - WALKING OR DANCING (also engaged race 1). 1st-up. Has trialled well (three times! Nothing like practice I suppose). He had form around some quality horses last prep. He ran home well for 3rd at 1100m kicking off that campaign, 1200m suits better. He won fresh prior.
1 - RUBINDA - Resumes. Strike-rate is ordinary but he is often in better races than this. He has placed 4 of 6 fresh and ran reel off some slick sectionals.

Race 5 - 86RB Hcp F&M - 1400m

5 - FANTASTIC ANGEL - Was crowded straightening two-back and and seemed to give up. Better effort last time working home soundly after finding strife behind Neroli (then won again). Boasts a third to Triple Honour/ El Cambio.
10 - ESTANCIA RIOS - Broke her maiden in good style fresh then ran home strongly (beat Fantastic Angel) 2nd-up when 3rd to Neroli (since won again) and she meets Fantastic Angel 1kg better. Ran honestly 3rd-up. Has placed 3 of 4 on dry.
6 - VINTAGE ROCK - Ran time beating the gifted Fox Lake 1st-up in Canberra. She won well 2nd-up last prep down there and like her out to 1400m, she has form around city-class gallopers (Rose Of Cimmeron etc).
1 - MATCHLESS - She didn't ping home 1st-up but felt she was simply run off her legs in a fast-run 1100m race (winner led all way). She has strong 2nd-up form (either good or luckless) and back to her own sex here is a help to offset the 59kg. She has form in better races...
3 - STACKED - Well-weighted after the claim. Tried hard on-speed on dry last time. She is lengths better in wet for mine but may get soft-ish lead so in the mix.

Race 6 - Welter Hcp - 2000m

5 - FALCONBRIDGE - Unbeaten (4 from 4) this prep and has a great will to win (just finds when challenged !). Is in with 53kg (below the limit) after the claim. Will be short. Just he and Imvula in quaddie for mine.
7 - IMVULA - Impressed here two-back when only 2nd-up then was safely held last week but that was a wet track, at WFA. Back to this level, down in weight on drier equals a much better run on paper.
4 - BUNDOORAN BREEZE - Was outclassed in an Epsom Hcp. Was only 2L off Fiumicino at WFA at 1900m two-back which is a better guide. Has a case.
6 - DANE FLYER - Big win fresh then flopped his next two. Worked home well last time. Moody and has poor strike-rate. Place.
9 - STONE CANYON - Was honest behind Falconbridge at Randwick (beaten 2.8L) but now meets him worse at the weights... Place.

Race 7 - 86RB Hcp - 1500m

2 - BLESSUS - Stormed home late at 1100m fresh behind speedy all-way winner Disciplined then wasn't far away in a strong Bill Ritchie 2nd-up when not far off All Silent (arguably the best run in the race in Epsom last week). Was 1100m-to-1400m there so fitter and drops many levels. Very hard to beat (another dual acceptor !).
5 - ZATTERO - Held his ground (was balked straightening) 1st-up then dropped in grade and won 2nd-up at Newcastle. Have always had plenty of time for him (and his Dam, she was a gun!). Peaks 3rd-up but wonder if he wants a shade further now? Goes in.
1 - STRAT'S FLYER - Chased hard behind Kiloton two-back then was home hard again (behind Imvula) last time. In with 56.5kg (just 3kg over limit) after the claim and has placed 5 of 8 starts here so is due...
12 - ABSENT FRIENDS - Have some time for him too. Forgive the 1st-up run when wide. Stayed inside and got the runs through to win at Wyong 2nd-up. He ran 3rd in a Canberra Guineas at 1600m 3rd-up last prep off a wide run then wasn't far off Dealer Principal here. In with 50kg after claim. Over the odds ?
6 - SIR JAMES - Did enough 1st-up when not far off Zattero who then won. He always improves 2nd-up and ran home well to place 2nd-up last prep.

Race 8 - Hcp - 1400m

4 - BOBADAH - Found the line super 1st-up behind Typhoon Zed/ Raheeb (great form race) then was given no hope (wide all way) in a Cameron Hcp. Loves Rosehill and in well after the claim from ideal draw.
7 - ALVERTA - Did a good job to keep closing in Listed Nivison 1st-up as she covered ground. Her last two 2nd-up runs have been Group 1 placing to Takeover Target and a G2 placing last prep. Classy! Can win!
13 - BLESSUS - Dual acceptor. Stormed home late at 1100m fresh behind speedy all-way winner Disciplined then wasn't far away in a strong Bill Ritchie 2nd-up when not far off All Silent (arguably the best run in the race in Epsom last week). Was 1100m-to-1400m there so fitter and drops many levels. Very hard to beat.
1 - GERMAN CHOCOLATE - Scratched last week on a wet track. Found all sorts of trouble (may have won?) 1st-up flashing late for 3rd t My Vegas here at 1100m. Jumps to 1400m 2nd-up but drops in grade and in well after claim for a G1 winner. Gate 14 may suit him by now out of trouble, wide in a race with a stack of speed on paper.
6 - CROSSWISE - Talented but injury-plagued galloper. His record is amazing: 14 starts, 7 wins, 5 placings and 1 x 4th. He has won 3 of 4 here and 1400m is no concern. In well weights after claim also.

Good luck !

Gator

David Gately

Horse Racing Tips And Info For The Professional

To today's racing...